TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 6:12 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether Marcelo Castro will win the most votes in the 2026 Piauí Senate election on Polymarket, with the result determined by official Brazilian government reports. Currently, the probability that Marcelo Castro wins the most votes stands at 46.5%, while the probability that Ciro Nogueira wins the most votes is 33.0%. The outcome will be decided by the election results on October 4, 2026.
Polymarket
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Frequently asked questions
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the election result is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final tally of valid votes will determine the winner, and the market will close when official results are announced and widely accepted. No further trading will occur after this point, and all positions will settle based on the verified outcome.
Key events such as candidate debates, major policy announcements, or shifts in endorsement momentum can significantly affect this market. Economic data releases, regional scandals, or changes in voter registration counts may also sway trader sentiment. As Oct 5, 2026 approaches, polling updates will become more frequent, often driving rapid price adjustments on Polymarket in response to shifting public opinion trends.
