TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Pernambuco Governor Election Winner
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the Pernambuco Governor election?

Volume:
$164,654

Raquel Lyra

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 4:26 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Raquel Lyra

View
100%
42%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$75,047
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Raquel Lyra

View
100%
45%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$9,410
N/A
N/A
$3,440
2mo 3w
Yes
polymarket

João Campos

View
0%
41%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$66,853
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

João Campos

View
0%
50%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,926
N/A
N/A
$767
2mo 3w
No
polymarket

Ivan Moraes

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,773
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Ivan Moraes

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$274
N/A
N/A
$274
2mo 3w
No
kalshi

Professora Camila

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$274
N/A
N/A
$274
2mo 3w
No
kalshi

Professor Jeremias do Banco

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$274
N/A
N/A
$274
2mo 3w
No
kalshi

Guilherme Fonseca

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$274
N/A
N/A
$274
2mo 3w
No
kalshi

Victor Assis

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$274
N/A
N/A
$274
2mo 3w
No
kalshi

Renan

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$274
N/A
N/A
$274
2mo 3w
No
polymarket

Candidate A

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate B

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate C

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate D

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate E

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate F

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate G

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate H

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 20

Description

This group forecasts the winner of the 2026 Pernambuco gubernatorial election in Brazil. The election may proceed to a runoff if no candidate achieves a majority in the first round. Resolution will be based on official results from the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Kalshi markets resolve based on the same primary source (official election results) and define the winning candidate as the one declared by the TSE, including accounting for potential runoffs.Primary resolution logic: Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) (www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes)

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to the candidate who wins the Pernambuco gubernatorial election.
  • Official results from the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) are the definitive source for determining the winner.
  • A runoff election will be considered if no candidate receives a majority of valid votes in the first round.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Delayed Results: If the election result is not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 'Other'.
  • Interim Governors: Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed before the specified election will not be considered.
Timing: The market will resolve once the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) officially declares a winner, or on June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET if no winner is declared.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Kalshi

If João Campos wins the 2026 Pernambuco gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Professora Camila wins the 2026 Pernambuco gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Professor Jeremias do Banco wins the 2026 Pernambuco gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Guilherme Fonseca wins the 2026 Pernambuco gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ivan Moraes wins the 2026 Pernambuco gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Victor Assis wins the 2026 Pernambuco gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Raquel Lyra wins the 2026 Pernambuco gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Renan wins the 2026 Pernambuco gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. Polls capture stated preferences, while this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on an outcome. This can lead to more accurate predictions, as traders have a financial incentive to be correct. While polls can be useful for understanding public opinion at a given moment, this market aggregates information from a diverse group of participants, potentially incorporating factors not captured in polls. The difference between the two can sometimes be significant, especially as the election draws nearer.