TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 2, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
The markets track Pepsi's point-of-sale growth for September 2026, measured as a year-over-year percentage change. Growth is determined by comparing sales data from September 2026 to the same month in the previous year, using a panel that captures in-store and online purchases through receipt scanning and rewards apps.
All markets resolve based on the Carbon Arc Pepsi Point of Sale Growth index for September 2026, with each market requiring the index to exceed a specific threshold ranging from 91 to 103. The index measures year-over-year sales growth, where a value of 100 indicates no change from the prior year, values above 100 indicate growth, and values below 100 indicate decline. Settlement is determined by the first value reported by Carbon Arc for September 2026, and any subsequent corrections or revisions will not affect the outcome. The index is calculated using a point-of-sale receipt panel that tracks in-store and online purchases via receipt-scanning and rewards apps, matched to the same period of the prior year. The panel updates daily as new data becomes available. Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with or connected to Pepsi or Carbon Arc in any official capacity, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of expectations for Pepsi's September sales growth. While analysts may incorporate a wider range of historical data and models, traders on Kalshi react quickly to new news, earnings reports, and consumer sentiment indicators, which can sometimes lead to tighter or more volatile pricing.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final sales growth figure for Pepsi in September will be compared against the market's defined thresholds, and the result will be settled automatically based on that verified data.
Key signals that could shift this market include weekly sales reports from Pepsi or its competitors, macroeconomic announcements affecting consumer spending, changes in retail pricing strategies, and any major marketing campaigns launched before the end of September. Each of these can alter trader expectations and move the odds rapidly on Kalshi as new information emerges.