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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 22h:04m:49s
Will Peggy Flanagan run 0 to 3 points behind Amy Klobuchar?
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Description
The 2026 Minnesota general election is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. Peggy Flanagan is the Democratic nominee for United States Senate in Minnesota, and Amy Klobuchar is the Democratic nominee for Governor of Minnesota. This market will resolve based on how many percentage points Peggy Flanagan’s vote share in the 2026 Minnesota U.S. Senate election falls below Amy Klobuchar’s vote share in the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election. If Flanagan’s vote share exceeds Klobuchar’s, this market will resolve to “Runs ahead”. Each candidate’s vote share will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for that candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in that candidate’s respective race, including write-in votes, calculated from the certified vote totals without rounding. For a race that includes a runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round process, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing the named candidate and at least one other candidate. If the reported difference falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the two vote shares are equal, this market will resolve to “0-3 points behind.” If either candidate withdraws or is otherwise removed from the general election ballot such that they receive no recorded votes, or if a candidate’s vote share cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote. The resolution source for this market will be the certified results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket
The 2026 Minnesota general election is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. Peggy Flanagan is the Democratic nominee for United States Senate in Minnesota, and Amy Klobuchar is the Democratic nominee for Governor of Minnesota. This market will resolve based on how many percentage points Peggy Flanagan’s vote share in the 2026 Minnesota U.S. Senate election falls below Amy Klobuchar’s vote share in the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election. If Flanagan’s vote share exceeds Klobuchar’s, this market will resolve to “Runs ahead”. Each candidate’s vote share will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for that candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in that candidate’s respective race, including write-in votes, calculated from the certified vote totals without rounding. For a race that includes a runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round process, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing the named candidate and at least one other candidate. If the reported difference falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the two vote shares are equal, this market will resolve to “0-3 points behind.” If either candidate withdraws or is otherwise removed from the general election ballot such that they receive no recorded votes, or if a candidate’s vote share cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote. The resolution source for this market will be the certified results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the latest information and sentiment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of Peggy Flanagan running behind Amy Klobuchar by the specified margin, with higher prices suggesting a greater perceived likelihood. The market's price is driven entirely by supply and demand among traders on Polymarket.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final vote count in the Minnesota Lieutenant Governor race will be used to determine the point difference between the candidates. The outcome will be based on official election results as reported by relevant authorities. This market will settle based on the official margin of victory, providing a clear and objective determination of the result. Traders should monitor news sources for updates as the election results are finalized.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Major shifts in polling data, significant endorsements from influential figures, or unexpected campaign developments could all cause traders to reassess their probabilities. Any news related to candidate performance, fundraising, or potential controversies could also move the market. Furthermore, broader political trends or events impacting voter sentiment in Minnesota could play a role. Changes in media coverage and public perception of the candidates are also likely to influence trading activity in this market.
