TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 9:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks maritime traffic levels through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for global oil shipments. During the specified week, observers will monitor whether congestion reaches certain thresholds based on reported transit calls. The outcome depends on whether daily traffic peaks surpass predefined levels, reflecting potential supply chain pressures or geopolitical tensions influencing shipping routes.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the highest single-day count of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by the IMF PortWatch, between September 28 and October 4, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold: resolutions occur if the peak daily count exceeds 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, or 14 calls, respectively. The expiration value for every market is derived from this same highest daily count. All markets will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the observation period, ensuring all data is fully available before final determination.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling averages, as there aren't readily available polls specifically forecasting peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. However, geopolitical analysts are closely monitoring tensions in the region, and their assessments often focus on the potential for disruptions to shipping lanes. This market offers a unique, real-time assessment of risk based on the collective judgment of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than expert opinions or traditional news coverage. It’s a way to see what the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ believes will happen.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes, and the prices of these contracts reflect the market’s probability assessment. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract represents the cost to purchase it, and therefore the implied probability of that outcome occurring. Higher prices indicate a greater perceived likelihood, while lower prices suggest a lower probability. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a fluid and responsive market.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on publicly available data regarding the peak volume of maritime traffic passing through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe. The exact measurement methodology will be determined by Kalshi and will be based on established shipping data sources. The outcome will reflect the highest recorded traffic volume during the period of September 28th to October 4th.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 6, 2026. Escalations in geopolitical tensions involving Iran or regional powers are primary catalysts, as these could lead to disruptions in shipping. Unexpected military exercises, attacks on commercial vessels, or heightened rhetoric could all increase perceived risk and drive up prices. Conversely, diplomatic breakthroughs or de-escalation efforts could lower prices. Additionally, major weather events impacting shipping routes or significant changes in global oil prices could also influence trading activity in this market.
