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419,492
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Time left: 07d:11h:08m
Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 3 from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026?
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Description
This event tracks maritime activity through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for global oil transport. During a specified week, observers will monitor whether traffic volumes exceed certain thresholds. The outcome depends on recorded daily transit numbers, reflecting potential shifts in shipping patterns due to geopolitical or economic factors.
Kalshi
All markets in this event series share a common structure, resolving based on the highest single-day count of vessel transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by IMF PortWatch, within the period from November 2 to November 8, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific numerical threshold (ranging from 3 to 10), and resolves to 'Yes' if the recorded peak daily count exceeds that threshold. The expiration value for all markets is derived identically: by identifying the maximum daily transit count during the specified window. Resolution for all markets occurs no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, ensuring all data is fully available before final determination. This unified framework allows multiple markets to operate concurrently, each assessing a different level of traffic intensity against the same underlying data set.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling averages, as there aren't widely available polls specifically forecasting the daily traffic volume through the Strait of Hormuz. However, analysts following the region are monitoring geopolitical tensions and shipping activity, and their assessments generally align with the possibility of increased disruptions. This market offers a different perspective than expert opinions, as it represents a collective forecast based on financial incentives and real-time information, rather than stated beliefs.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are essentially betting on their forecast, and the market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand. Higher demand for contracts predicting increased traffic drives up the price, while increased selling lowers it, creating a constantly updated probability assessment.
This market resolves around Nov 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the highest single-day number of transit calls recorded through the Strait of Hormuz between November 2nd and November 8th, 2026. The data used for resolution will be sourced from publicly available maritime tracking information, ensuring transparency and objectivity in determining whether the market resolves in favor of more than 3 transit calls on any given day during that period.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Escalations in geopolitical tensions between Iran and other regional or global powers, such as the United States or Saudi Arabia, would likely increase the perceived risk of disruptions to shipping. Attacks on commercial vessels in the region, or increased Iranian naval activity, could also drive up prices. Conversely, diplomatic breakthroughs or a decrease in regional instability could lower prices. Major changes in global oil prices or shipping rates might also influence trader sentiment and affect the volume traded in this market.
