TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 9:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the intensity of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz over a one-week period. It focuses on whether the peak daily vessel transit exceeds specific thresholds, reflecting potential shifts in global oil shipping patterns or regional geopolitical dynamics.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether the highest daily count of vessel transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by the IMF PortWatch between October 5 and October 11, 2026, surpasses various thresholds. Each market corresponds to a different threshold, with resolution occurring after the conclusion of the period and the availability of complete data. The Expiration Value for all markets is derived from the same data set—the maximum daily transit count during the specified dates—and will be announced no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the observation window. All markets share identical reporting sources and resolution timing, ensuring consistency across varying threshold evaluations.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling data, as polling on specific traffic volume predictions through the Strait of Hormuz is uncommon. However, geopolitical analysts and shipping industry experts have expressed concerns about potential disruptions, and this market reflects those concerns through the prices set by traders. Discrepancies between expert opinions and the market could indicate traders believe there’s information not yet fully incorporated into conventional analysis, or that they are assigning different probabilities to various risk factors. This market offers a forward-looking assessment based on collective intelligence.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth—the number of buy and sell orders at different price levels—indicates the level of agreement or disagreement among traders about the likely outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of risk and potential disruptions to traffic flow.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on publicly available data regarding the peak volume of traffic passing through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe, October 5th to October 11th. The data source will be determined by Kalshi and will be a widely recognized authority on maritime traffic. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and whether their predictions were accurate after the resolution date.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Escalations in geopolitical tensions in the region, such as increased military activity or attacks on shipping vessels, would likely drive prices higher. Conversely, diplomatic breakthroughs or de-escalation efforts could lower prices. Reports of significant disruptions to oil production or increased demand for shipping could also influence trading activity. Additionally, major weather events impacting shipping routes, or statements from key international actors regarding the security of the Strait of Hormuz, could all contribute to price fluctuations in this market.
