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Above 3
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Above 3 - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 13h:08m:29s
Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 3 from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026?
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Description
This event tracks whether shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz exceeds certain thresholds during a specific week in 2026. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical passageway for global oil and gas shipments, and monitoring traffic levels can provide insights into geopolitical tensions or economic conditions affecting maritime routes.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple thresholds for daily transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz over a fixed period from October 26 to November 1, 2026, using data reported by the IMF PortWatch. Each market corresponds to a specific numerical threshold, resolving to 'Yes' if the highest single-day count within the period exceeds that threshold. The expiration value for all markets is derived from the same data set—identifying the peak daily transit count during the specified dates. Resolution for all markets occurs no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, ensuring all participants have access to complete and verified data before any outcomes are finalized.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling data. Polling typically asks about expectations or beliefs about future events, while this market reflects what traders are willing to bet on. Differences can arise due to factors like information access, incentives, and the aggregation of diverse perspectives. If polls become available that directly address the expected peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz during the event timeframe, it will be interesting to see how they align with the collective prediction reflected in this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market's probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price implies a certain probability assigned to each potential peak traffic level, and these probabilities are constantly updated based on trading activity. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time assessment of expectations.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on publicly available data regarding the peak traffic volume through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe. The exact measurement methodology will be determined by Kalshi and made available to traders prior to resolution. Traders should review the market details on Kalshi for the most up-to-date information regarding the resolution process.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Geopolitical events, such as increased tensions in the region or disruptions to shipping routes, would likely cause substantial movement. Unexpected changes in global oil prices or demand could also influence traffic volume. Major incidents affecting oil tankers or port operations would be key catalysts. Additionally, statements from relevant governments or international organizations regarding maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz could shift trader sentiment and move this market.
