TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 9:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether traffic through the Strait of Hormuz exceeds certain thresholds during a specific week in 2026. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical waterway for global oil transport, and monitoring transit levels can provide insights into geopolitical tensions and economic activity. The outcome depends on official reports from the IMF PortWatch.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple thresholds for daily transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from October 19 to October 25, 2026, as reported by IMF PortWatch. Each market corresponds to a specific numerical threshold (ranging from above 3 to above 10 transit calls per day). For any given market, if the highest single-day count within the specified period exceeds its designated threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The expiration value for all markets is derived from the same data set—the peak daily transit count during the week—and will be confirmed no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the observation period, ensuring all data is fully available before resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare this market to traditional polling data, as polls rarely attempt to forecast specific logistical outcomes like traffic volume. However, geopolitical analysts and news sources are closely monitoring the situation in the region, and their assessments often align with the direction of movement in this market. If analysts predict increased tensions, we’d expect to see increased demand for contracts predicting lower traffic. Discrepancies between this market and expert opinions could represent opportunities for informed traders, suggesting the market may be pricing in information not yet reflected in public analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different levels of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time forecast. The market’s depth and volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in their predictions, and can be used to assess the potential for price swings.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on publicly available data regarding the average daily volume of ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe of October 19th to October 25th. The exact methodology for calculating this average will be determined by Kalshi and will be publicly available prior to resolution. Traders should review the market rules on Kalshi for specific details regarding the resolution process.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Escalations in geopolitical tensions between Iran and other regional or global powers, such as the United States or Saudi Arabia, would likely lead to increased volatility and a potential decrease in predicted traffic. Conversely, diplomatic breakthroughs or de-escalation efforts could boost confidence and increase predicted traffic. Unexpected disruptions to oil production or shipping routes, or major naval exercises in the area, could also influence trading activity. Monitoring news reports, official statements, and shipping data will be crucial for understanding potential market movements.
