TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 20, 9:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks maritime traffic intensity through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for global oil shipments. During a specific week in October 2026, observers will monitor whether the peak daily vessel transits surpass certain thresholds. The outcome depends on official data from the IMF PortWatch, reflecting potential shifts in shipping patterns due to geopolitical or economic factors.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether the highest daily count of vessel transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, as officially reported by the IMF PortWatch during the period from October 12 to October 18, 2026, exceeds specified thresholds. Each market corresponds to a different numerical threshold (e.g., above 4, above 5, etc.), with the market resolving to 'Yes' if the recorded peak daily count meets or surpasses that threshold. The expiration value for all markets is derived from the same data point—the maximum single-day transit count within the specified window—and will finalize no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the period's conclusion, ensuring all data is fully available and verified before resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to polling averages, as there are no widely available public polls specifically forecasting the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz. However, geopolitical analysts often provide assessments of regional stability and potential disruptions to shipping lanes, which can offer a point of comparison. If analyst expectations suggest a high probability of increased tensions, we might expect the odds of higher traffic – reflecting potential rerouting – to increase in this market. Conversely, a calm outlook could lead to lower odds.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on the highest single-day number of transit calls recorded through the Strait of Hormuz between October 12, 2026, and October 18, 2026. Data will be sourced from publicly available maritime tracking information and verified against credible public sources to determine whether the highest daily transit count exceeded 4. The final outcome will be reflected in the market’s settlement.
Several geopolitical events could significantly impact this market. Escalations in tensions between Iran and other regional or global powers, such as the United States or Saudi Arabia, would likely increase the perceived risk of disruptions to shipping and potentially drive up the odds of higher traffic. Conversely, diplomatic breakthroughs or de-escalation efforts could have the opposite effect. Unexpected incidents, like attacks on tankers or increased naval activity in the region, could also cause rapid shifts in market prices. Monitoring news related to Iranian nuclear negotiations and regional security alliances will be crucial.
