TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 9:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for global oil transport, during a specific week in 2026. It focuses on identifying which day within that week sees the highest number of vessel transits, reflecting potential fluctuations in trade dynamics or geopolitical influences on maritime routes.
Kalshi
The event evaluates daily vessel transit counts through the Strait of Hormuz from September 28 to October 4, 2026, using data reported by the IMF PortWatch. For each day in this period, a separate market determines whether that specific day had the highest number of transit calls during the week. If multiple days tie for the highest count, each tied day’s market resolves to a fractional value of 1 divided by the number of tied days. All markets will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the evaluation period, ensuring all data is fully available before resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling averages, as there are limited public polls specifically forecasting peak daily traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. However, geopolitical analysts and shipping industry reports offer insights into potential disruptions and traffic patterns. These sources often consider factors like regional tensions, oil prices, and global trade flows. This market offers a different perspective, reflecting the collective judgment of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome, potentially offering a more dynamic and responsive forecast than static polls.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different peak traffic levels. The price of each contract reflects the market's current assessment of its probability. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; if many traders believe a particular traffic level is likely, the price of that contract will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a fair and efficient market for forecasting this event.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Escalations in geopolitical tensions in the region, such as increased military activity or attacks on shipping vessels, would likely increase the perceived risk of disruptions and potentially lower predicted traffic levels. Conversely, diplomatic breakthroughs or easing of sanctions could boost confidence in uninterrupted trade flows. Major shifts in global oil prices or unexpected changes in shipping demand could also influence the market. Weather events, such as severe storms, could temporarily affect traffic patterns and impact predictions within this market.
