TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
November 2
- Kalshi
November 2 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 10, 2026
Time left: 07d:12h:02m
Will November 2 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (11/2 - 11/8)?
$
Description
This event tracks shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for global oil transport, during a specific week in November 2026. It focuses on identifying which day within that week sees the highest number of vessel transits, reflecting potential fluctuations in trade volumes or logistical patterns.
Kalshi
The event evaluates daily vessel transit counts through the Strait of Hormuz from November 2 to November 8, 2026, using data reported by the IMF PortWatch. For each day in this range, a separate market determines whether that specific day had the highest number of transit calls during the week. If one day uniquely records the highest count, its corresponding market resolves to Yes, while all others resolve to No. If multiple days tie for the highest count, each tied day’s market resolves proportionally, with each receiving a fraction of 1 divided by the number of tied days (e.g., 1/2 for a two-way tie). All markets resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the evaluation period, ensuring all data is fully available before resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling data, as there aren't widely available polls specifically forecasting daily traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. However, analysts following geopolitical events in the region generally anticipate potential fluctuations based on ongoing conflicts and diplomatic tensions. This market provides a real-time assessment of perceived risk and probability, potentially offering a different perspective than static polling averages, which may not capture the same level of dynamic expectation about this specific event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome – in this case, each day from November 2nd to November 8th. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing expectations regarding vessel traffic volume through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe.
This market resolves around Nov 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the day with the highest number of vessel transit calls recorded through the Strait of Hormuz between November 2nd and November 8th will determine the winning outcome. Data will be sourced from publicly available maritime tracking services to ensure an objective determination of the busiest day during the event window.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Escalations in geopolitical tensions involving Iran or regional powers could lead to increased naval presence and potentially disrupt shipping, influencing the perceived likelihood of higher traffic on certain days. Unexpected oil price fluctuations or changes in global demand could also affect shipping volumes. Furthermore, any announcements regarding security concerns or temporary closures of the Strait of Hormuz would likely cause substantial shifts in trading activity and the overall probabilities reflected in this market.
