TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 9:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
Maritime traffic patterns through the Strait of Hormuz can vary significantly day-to-day due to operational schedules, weather, or regional conditions. Identifying the single busiest day offers insight into short-term shifts in shipping demand or capacity utilization.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to Yes if the specified date (from October 5 to October 11, 2026) has the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by IMF PortWatch, among all days in that week. If multiple days tie for the highest count, each tied day’s market resolves to 1/N, where N is the number of tied days. All markets resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the period's end, once complete data is available.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling data, as there aren't widely available polls specifically forecasting peak daily traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. However, analysts following geopolitical events and shipping data often offer insights into potential disruptions or increased activity. Discrepancies between this market’s predictions and expert opinions could reflect factors not captured in conventional analysis, such as unforeseen events or rapidly changing circumstances. This market provides a real-time, aggregated forecast based on the wisdom of the crowd, which may differ from static expert assessments.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible day being the peak traffic day. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of its probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a constantly updated forecast. The platform facilitates this price discovery process, allowing participants to express their views on the likelihood of different outcomes and profit from correctly anticipating the peak traffic day.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the day with the highest number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz between October 5th and October 11th, as reported by a reputable maritime tracking service, will determine the winning outcome. The resolution will be based on publicly available data and verified against credible sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders will then be paid out based on their holdings in the winning contract.
Several factors could significantly influence the Strait of Hormuz traffic market. Geopolitical tensions in the region, such as increased military activity or diplomatic incidents, could disrupt shipping routes and affect traffic volume. Unexpected weather events, like major storms, could also lead to delays or rerouting of vessels. Additionally, changes in global oil prices or demand could impact the number of tankers transiting the strait. Any significant news related to these factors is likely to cause shifts in trading activity and, consequently, the odds in this market.
