TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Which day will have peak Strait of Hormuz traffic?
October 31
- Kalshi
October 31 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 10h:59m:02s
Will October 31 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/26 - 11/1)?
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Description
This event tracks shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for global oil transport, during a specific week in 2026. It focuses on identifying which day within that window sees the highest number of vessel transits, reflecting potential fluctuations in trade patterns or geopolitical influences on maritime logistics.
Kalshi
The event determines whether any given day between October 26 and November 1, 2026, records the highest number of vessel transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by the IMF PortWatch. Each market corresponds to a specific day within this period, resolving to Yes if that day has the highest count. If multiple days tie for the highest number of transits, each tied day’s market resolves to a fractional value of 1 divided by the number of tied days. All markets will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the evaluation period, ensuring all data is fully available before resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling averages, as there aren’t widely available public polls specifically forecasting daily traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. However, analysts following geopolitical events in the region generally agree that increased tensions and seasonal shipping patterns could influence traffic volume. This market provides a unique, real-time assessment of expectations based on traders’ collective judgment, potentially offering a different perspective than expert opinions or traditional news coverage. The outcome of this market will be determined by verified data.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome – in this case, each day from October 26th to November 1st being the peak traffic day. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The current top outcome, according to Kalshi, is not available, as volume is currently zero.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The day with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz between October 26th and November 1st will be declared the winner. Data will be sourced from publicly available maritime tracking information to determine the final result. Traders will be able to see the resolution details on Kalshi following the confirmation of the data.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as increased military activity or disruptions to oil production in the region, could impact shipping traffic. Weather patterns, particularly severe storms, could also cause delays and alter traffic flow. News reports regarding tanker traffic or changes in global oil demand could also move the market. Any significant developments affecting the security or efficiency of transit through the Strait of Hormuz have the potential to shift trader sentiment and change the odds in this market.
