TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$172,394,893
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,821,572,886
404,136
Markets across
40,075
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
October 23
- Kalshi
October 23 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Oct 28, 2026
Latest in Politics
Closed: Oct 27, 9:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for global oil transport. During a specified week, each day is evaluated to determine which experiences the highest volume of vessel transits. The outcome depends on identifying the peak traffic day within this timeframe.
Kalshi
The event determines whether any given day between October 19 and October 25, 2026, records the highest number of vessel transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by IMF PortWatch. Each market corresponds to a specific day within this week. All markets share identical secondary rules: daily transit counts will be assessed after the conclusion of the evaluation period, with resolution occurring no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the week’s end, once complete data is confirmed available. In cases where multiple days tie for the highest transit count, each tied day’s market resolves to a fractional value of 1/N, where N represents the total number of days sharing the peak count. This structure ensures fair resolution based on authoritative data and clearly defined tie-breaking mechanics.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling averages, as there aren’t readily available polls specifically forecasting daily traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. However, analysts following geopolitical events in the region are monitoring factors that could influence shipping, such as regional conflicts and oil prices. This market offers a different perspective, reflecting the collective judgment of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome based on all available information, including those same geopolitical factors.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the latest collective assessment. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new developments and provide a real-time estimate of the likelihood of each possible peak traffic day.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on identifying the day with the highest recorded number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the specified period of October 19th to October 25th. Data from recognized maritime tracking services will be used to determine the peak day, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Escalations in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran, would likely cause increased volatility. Unexpected disruptions to oil production or shipping routes, such as attacks on tankers or blockades, could also move the market. Major announcements regarding international sanctions or trade agreements affecting oil transport are further catalysts. Finally, any credible reports of increased naval presence or military exercises in the region could influence trader sentiment and shift the odds in this market.
