TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 20, 9:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks maritime activity through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for global oil transport. During a specified week, observers will identify which day sees the highest number of vessel transits. The outcome depends on official data confirming daily traffic counts.
Kalshi
Each market corresponds to a specific calendar day between October 12 and October 18, 2026, assessing whether that day had the highest number of vessel transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch. All markets share the same evaluation window and resolution timeline, resolving no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the period's conclusion. In cases where multiple days tie for the highest transit count, each tied day’s market will resolve to a fractional value of 1 divided by the number of tied days, ensuring proportional payout distribution among all participants with correct predictions.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling data on geopolitical events. While polls attempt to capture public opinion, this market aggregates informed speculation about potential disruptions to shipping traffic. It’s common to see divergences, as traders weigh factors like geopolitical tensions, weather patterns, and economic indicators that may not be fully captured in public opinion surveys. This difference highlights the unique value of prediction markets in assessing probabilities based on a wider range of information and incentivized analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time estimate of expectations. The market depth and trading volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in their predictions regarding peak traffic levels through the Strait of Hormuz.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on identifying the day with the highest number of oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified period (October 12th - October 18th). Data will be sourced from publicly available maritime tracking information to determine which day experienced the greatest volume of traffic, establishing the winning outcome for this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before its resolution. Escalations in geopolitical tensions between Iran and other regional or international powers are a primary driver, as these could lead to disruptions in shipping lanes. Unexpected weather events, such as major storms, could also temporarily reduce traffic. Furthermore, changes in global oil prices or demand could influence the number of tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Any significant news related to these areas would likely cause fluctuations in the market’s odds and volume.
