TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 7, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of Peacock App Downloads for September 2026, comparing it to the same month in the previous year. The index value indicates growth if above 100 and decline if below 100. Multiple thresholds define different levels of success for the app's download performance during that month.
The event evaluates whether the Carbon Arc Peacock App Downloads index for September 2026 exceeds one of several predefined thresholds. Each market corresponds to a specific numerical threshold, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if the reported index value for September 2026 is above that threshold. The determination is based solely on the first value reported by Carbon Arc for that month, with any subsequent corrections or revisions disregarded for settlement purposes. The index measures year-over-year performance, where a value of 100 indicates equal downloads compared to the same month in the prior year, values above 100 signify growth, and values below 100 indicate a decline. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the underlying company, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of expectations for Peacock app downloads. While analysts may incorporate broader trends and historical data, traders on Kalshi react quickly to news, app performance, and promotional events. This can lead to divergence, where market prices lean more aggressively toward certain outcomes based on recent momentum rather than long-term projections.
This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will hinge on officially reported download figures for the Peacock app during September, analyzed against the market’s defined categories. No further interpretation is needed beyond publicly available data sources.
Several signals could shift this market before Oct 15, 2026. Major marketing campaigns, app updates, or partnerships announced by Peacock may boost expectations and lift prices. Conversely, technical issues, negative press, or strong competition from rival streaming services could depress the odds. Any surprise changes in consumer behavior—such as a viral trend or platform accessibility issues—will also influence trader sentiment on Kalshi as resolution approaches.