TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 9:16 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any full calendar day between the day of market creation and the specified date, inclusive (Paris time), passes without any curfew in effect in any part of the City of Paris, France. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A calendar day passes without any curfew in effect if, at no point between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM Paris time on that day, a curfew is in effect in any part of the City of Paris. The City of Paris refers to the municipality (commune) of Paris, within its official municipal boundaries. A curfew refers to a governmental order which generally prohibits the general population from being present in, or moving through, public spaces in the City of Paris, or a defined area of it, during a specific timeframe or specific hours. A curfew of any scope will count, whether citywide or limited to specific arrondissements, districts, or neighborhoods of the City of Paris, and must be officially declared by the City of Paris, the Paris Police Prefecture (Préfecture de police), or a French national authority. A broader curfew (e.g. department-wide or nationwide) will count so long as it applies to at least part of the City of Paris. Unofficial guidance, voluntary advisories, curfews applying only to minors or other specific groups, and conditional or prospective statements that a curfew may be imposed will not be considered curfews for the purposes of this market. Orders restricting demonstrations or gatherings, closures of specific parks, facilities or venues, restrictions on business hours or sales, and transit suspensions will not be considered curfews unless they also impose a curfew as defined above. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government announcements; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any full calendar day between the day of market creation and the specified date, inclusive (Paris time), passes without any curfew in effect in any part of the City of Paris, France. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A calendar day passes without any curfew in effect if, at no point between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM Paris time on that day, a curfew is in effect in any part of the City of Paris. The City of Paris refers to the municipality (commune) of Paris, within its official municipal boundaries. A curfew refers to a governmental order which generally prohibits the general population from being present in, or moving through, public spaces in the City of Paris, or a defined area of it, during a specific timeframe or specific hours. A curfew of any scope will count, whether citywide or limited to specific arrondissements, districts, or neighborhoods of the City of Paris, and must be officially declared by the City of Paris, the Paris Police Prefecture (Préfecture de police), or a French national authority. A broader curfew (e.g. department-wide or nationwide) will count so long as it applies to at least part of the City of Paris. Unofficial guidance, voluntary advisories, curfews applying only to minors or other specific groups, and conditional or prospective statements that a curfew may be imposed will not be considered curfews for the purposes of this market. Orders restricting demonstrations or gatherings, closures of specific parks, facilities or venues, restrictions on business hours or sales, and transit suspensions will not be considered curfews unless they also impose a curfew as defined above. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government announcements; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than traditional polling data on the potential lifting of the Paris curfew. While polls often capture stated preferences, this market represents what people are willing to *put their money on*. This difference can be significant, as prediction markets incentivize truthful forecasting and aggregate diverse information. Discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and polling averages often emerge when strong biases or incomplete information influence public opinion, but traders have access to more nuanced data.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where participants buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the Paris curfew will be effectively lifted by the resolution date. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of the event occurring. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price adjusts, providing a dynamic assessment of the likelihood of the curfew being lifted. This creates a real-time forecast based on the collective wisdom of the crowd.
This market resolves around Nov 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether official announcements from the French government indicate a complete and sustained lifting of the Paris curfew, effectively ending the restriction. The outcome will be determined by assessing whether the curfew is no longer in effect for the general public, based on publicly available information and official statements, rather than any specific numerical threshold or metric.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major announcements from the French government regarding COVID-19 restrictions, changes in infection rates, or shifts in public health policy would all be key catalysts. Unexpected political developments or statements from key officials could also influence trading activity. Additionally, any credible reports suggesting a change in the government's stance on the curfew, or a significant change in the public health situation in Paris, could lead to shifts in the implied probability reflected in this market.
