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Paris curfew announced by...?
polymarket

Paris curfew announced by...?

Volume:
$383,986

October 21

 - Polymarket

October 21 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 3:39 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

October 21

View
100%
95%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$155,513
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 19

View
100%
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$143,193
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 24

View
100%
90%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$52,789
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 31

View
100%
79%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$32,491
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 4

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a curfew is officially announced in any part of the City of Paris, France between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A curfew refers to a governmental order which generally prohibits the general population from being present in, or moving through, public spaces in the City of Paris, or a defined area of it, during a specific timeframe or specific hours. A qualifying curfew may be citywide or limited to specific arrondissements or neighborhoods of Paris, and must be officially declared by the City of Paris, the Paris Police Prefecture (Préfecture de police), or a French national authority. Unofficial guidance, voluntary advisories, curfews applying only to minors or other specific groups, and conditional or prospective statements that a curfew may be imposed will not qualify. Orders restricting demonstrations or gatherings, closures of specific parks, facilities or venues, restrictions on business hours or sales, and transit suspensions will not qualify unless they also impose a curfew as defined above. Any qualifying curfew which is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris local time will count regardless of if or when it goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government announcements; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a curfew is officially announced in any part of the City of Paris, France between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A curfew refers to a governmental order which generally prohibits the general population from being present in, or moving through, public spaces in the City of Paris, or a defined area of it, during a specific timeframe or specific hours. A qualifying curfew may be citywide or limited to specific arrondissements or neighborhoods of Paris, and must be officially declared by the City of Paris, the Paris Police Prefecture (Préfecture de police), or a French national authority. Unofficial guidance, voluntary advisories, curfews applying only to minors or other specific groups, and conditional or prospective statements that a curfew may be imposed will not qualify. Orders restricting demonstrations or gatherings, closures of specific parks, facilities or venues, restrictions on business hours or sales, and transit suspensions will not qualify unless they also impose a curfew as defined above. Any qualifying curfew which is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris local time will count regardless of if or when it goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government announcements; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Paris curfew market tracks the current odds of a curfew being announced in Paris, the price history of the market, and the 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the volume is $368,069 and the total volume traded is $382,842. The dashboard provides a visual representation of how traders are pricing the probability of this event occurring, allowing you to see shifts in sentiment over time. Users can also view the top outcome and its associated probability as determined by traders on Polymarket.

Currently, prediction market odds suggest a high probability of a Paris curfew being announced. These probabilities are formed by real money being wagered, offering a different signal than traditional polls or expert analysis. While polls can gauge public opinion, this market reflects what individuals are willing to financially risk on a specific outcome. Discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and polling averages often arise due to factors like information asymmetry and the incentive structure of prediction markets, where accurate predictions are rewarded.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous process where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of the event occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived likelihood. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by new information and shifts in trader sentiment. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new data and reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether an official curfew is announced by the relevant authorities in Paris before the resolution date. The outcome will be determined by examining official government statements and news reports from reputable sources. Traders should monitor these sources as the resolution date approaches to stay informed about potential developments that could impact the outcome of this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any official statements from the French government regarding public safety concerns or potential measures to address them would be key catalysts. Unexpected increases in crime rates or heightened security threats could also drive up the probability of a curfew. Conversely, positive news regarding public safety or announcements of alternative security measures could lower the probability. Monitoring news coverage and official announcements related to security and public order in Paris will be crucial for tracking potential market movements.