TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Paraná Governor Election Winner
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the Paraná Governor election?

Volume:
$327,250

Sergio Moro

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 6, 2026

Closed: Oct 6, 10:41 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Sergio Moro

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$210,882
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Sergio Moro

View
100%
21%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$9,388
N/A
N/A
$4,249
1mo 4w 1d
Yes
polymarket

Candidate B

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$38,793
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Requião Filho

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$36,358
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Requião Filho

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,441
N/A
N/A
$2,198
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Candidate A

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,812
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Alexandre Curi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,455
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Rafael Greca

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,403
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Enio Verri

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,396
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Guto Silva

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,022
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Beto Richa

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,625
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Luiz França

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,150
N/A
N/A
$500
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Sandro Alex

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$924
N/A
N/A
$515
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Adriano Funileiro

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$100
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Doutor Alexandre Salomão

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$100
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Samuel de Mattos

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Tayná Miessa

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Candidate G

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate C

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate D

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate E

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate F

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate H

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate J

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 26

Intro

This market tracks the winner of the 2026 Paraná gubernatorial election in Brazil. Currently, Polymarket and Kalshi traders collectively assign a 99.0% probability to Sergio Moro winning the election. This aggregated view combines data from Polymarket and Kalshi, and will resolve based on official results reported by the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Keep an eye on the first round of voting scheduled for October 4, 2026, as it will indicate whether a runoff election will be necessary on October 25, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The candidate lists differ significantly between Polymarket and Kalshi, creating SKU risk. Polymarket includes an 'Other' option, while Kalshi only lists specific candidates.Hero tip: Prioritize trading markets for candidates appearing on both platforms. The 'Other' option on Polymarket introduces uncertainty if a candidate not listed on Kalshi wins.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on the winner of the Paraná gubernatorial election, including a runoff if necessary. Includes an 'Other' option and a wide range of named candidates. Resolves to 'Other' if the result is unknown by June 30, 2027. "If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)"
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if a specific listed candidate wins the election. Only lists a limited set of candidates. "If [Candidate Name] wins the 2026 Paraná gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Kalshi

If Adriano Funileiro wins the 2026 Paraná gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Doutor Alexandre Salomão wins the 2026 Paraná gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Luiz França wins the 2026 Paraná gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Requião Filho wins the 2026 Paraná gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Samuel de Mattos wins the 2026 Paraná gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Sandro Alex wins the 2026 Paraná gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Sergio Moro wins the 2026 Paraná gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tayná Miessa wins the 2026 Paraná gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those reflected in this market, often offer a more accurate forecast than traditional polling averages. Polls capture stated preferences, while this market incentivizes participants to reveal their *true* beliefs through financial stakes. This can lead to a more nuanced and reliable prediction, especially as new information emerges. While polls can be useful, they are susceptible to biases and inaccuracies. This market aggregates diverse perspectives, creating a robust signal of potential outcomes. The difference between market probabilities and polls can sometimes be significant, particularly in volatile political landscapes.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements, significant shifts in polling data, and unexpected developments in the campaigns of candidates are all potential catalysts. Any news related to investigations or controversies involving key figures could also move the market. Additionally, economic events or national political trends that impact voter sentiment in Paraná could influence trading activity. A major debate performance or a significant campaign fundraising announcement could also shift probabilities. Traders will closely watch these factors as they assess the likelihood of different outcomes in the Paraná Governor election.