TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Candidate A
- Polymarket
Candidate A - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Oct 5, 2026
Latest in Politics
Closed: Oct 5, 5:58 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This group forecasts the winner of the 2026 Paraíba gubernatorial election in Brazil. The election may proceed to a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate achieves a majority in the first round on October 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on official results from the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Kalshi markets resolve to the same event – the winner of the 2026 Paraíba gubernatorial election – based on the official results from the TSE.Primary resolution logic: Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) (www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes)Core resolution logic:
- The market resolves to the candidate who wins the Paraíba gubernatorial election.
- Official results from the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) are the definitive source for determining the winner.
- If no winner is determined by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Tie: In the unlikely event of a tie, the official decision of the TSE will be followed, and the market will resolve accordingly.
- Election Delay: If the election is significantly delayed beyond the scheduled dates, the resolution date of June 30, 2027, will still apply. If a winner isn't declared by then, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Polymarket
The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Kalshi
If Camilo Duarte wins the 2026 Paraíba gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Cícero Lucena wins the 2026 Paraíba gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Efraim Filho wins the 2026 Paraíba gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lucas Ribeiro wins the 2026 Paraíba gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Pedro Coutinho wins the 2026 Paraíba gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Yuri Ezequiel wins the 2026 Paraíba gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Each platform has a different user base, trading volume, and liquidity, which can influence price discovery. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Furthermore, differing market rules, fee structures, or even the way questions are phrased can contribute to discrepancies. For example, Polymarket might attract more sophisticated traders, while Kalshi may have a broader range of participants. These variations can result in differing probabilities for the same event, even though both platforms are ultimately tracking the same Paraíba Governor election.
Several events could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements from influential political figures, shifts in public opinion revealed by new polling data, and significant campaign events could all cause price fluctuations. Unexpected scandals or controversies involving candidates could also move the market. Economic developments in Paraíba or Brazil, and national political trends, may also play a role. Any news that alters perceptions of a candidate's chances of winning the Paraíba Governor election is likely to be reflected in the trading activity on Polymarket and Kalshi.