TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Pará Governor Election Winner
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the Pará Governor election?

Volume:
$75,587

Dr. Daniel Santos

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 5:59 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Dr. Daniel Santos

View
100%
12%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$25,629
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Dr. Daniel

View
100%
38%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,530
N/A
N/A
$1,098
1mo 4w 1d
Yes
polymarket

Hana Ghassan

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25,422
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Hana Ghassan

View
0%
47%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$924
N/A
N/A
$669
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Éder Mauro

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,447
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Rogério Barra

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,899
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Paulo Rocha

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,881
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Zequinha Marinho

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,814
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Dirceu Ten Caten

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,735
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Araceli

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$77
N/A
N/A
$40
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Gal Leite

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$77
N/A
N/A
$40
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Ruth Reis

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$77
N/A
N/A
$40
1mo 4w 1d
No
kalshi

Well Macêdo

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$77
N/A
N/A
$40
1mo 4w 1d
No
polymarket

Candidate I

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate C

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate H

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate A

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate D

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate E

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate B

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate F

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate G

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate J

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 24

Description

This group forecasts the winner of the 2026 Pará gubernatorial election in Brazil. The election may proceed to a runoff if no candidate achieves a majority in the first round. Resolution will be based on official results from the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The candidate scope differs significantly between Polymarket and Kalshi, creating a divergence in potential outcomes and hedging strategies.Hero tip: Consider the broader candidate field available on Polymarket for more complete coverage. If trading on Kalshi, recognize that the market is focused on a specific subset of candidates.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Polymarket offers markets on numerous individual candidates (I, Zequinha Marinho, C, H, A, etc.) and 'Other', resolving based on the official winner as reported by the TSE. "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election."
  • Kalshi: Kalshi offers markets only on a limited set of candidates (Araceli, Dr. Daniel, Gal Leite, Hana Ghassan, Ruth Reis, Well Macêdo), resolving to 'Yes' if that specific candidate wins. "If Araceli wins the 2026 Pará gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Kalshi

If Araceli wins the 2026 Pará gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Dr. Daniel wins the 2026 Pará gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Gal Leite wins the 2026 Pará gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Hana Ghassan wins the 2026 Pará gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ruth Reis wins the 2026 Pará gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Well Macêdo wins the 2026 Pará gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard aggregates real-time predictions on the outcome of the Pará governor election. Currently, the combined volume across both platforms is $75,587, with $3,667 traded in the last 24 hours. This provides a consensus view of what traders believe will happen, reflecting a collective forecast beyond any single source. The dashboard tracks the probability of various outcomes, allowing you to see which candidates are favored and how those odds are shifting over time. It’s a dynamic representation of informed speculation on the election.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what people are willing to *bet* on, which can reveal stronger convictions and incorporate more information. Polling data can be susceptible to biases and inaccuracies, whereas the price action in this market incentivizes participants to be as accurate as possible. It’s not uncommon to see discrepancies, particularly in volatile political races like the Pará governor election, as traders factor in factors polls may miss, such as campaign momentum or unforeseen events.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Major endorsements, significant shifts in polling data, and unexpected campaign controversies could all impact trader sentiment. Any developments related to the candidates’ platforms, fundraising efforts, or public appearances could also influence the odds. Furthermore, broader political events in Brazil or regional developments within Pará could introduce new information and volatility into this market. Keep an eye on news coverage and analysis of the election to understand potential catalysts for price movement.