TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$323,326,361

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

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40,411

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4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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PA-08 House Election Winner
⌛Ending Soon
opinion

Who will win the PA-08 House election?

Oct 19, 2026, 10:22 PM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Rob Bresnahan (R)

 - Opinion

Rob Bresnahan (R) - Opinion

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 01d:01h:36m

Rob Bresnahan (R)

14%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
opinion

Trade on Opinion

At 14¢ buys you 714 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $714 | Net Profit: $614 Multiplier: 7.14x | ROI: 614% APY not meaningful
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
opinion

Rob Bresnahan (R)

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 36m
Active
opinion

Paige Cognetti (D)

Trade
N/A
N/A
9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 36m
Active
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Opinion

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Frequently asked questions

On Opinion, the dashboard for the PA-08 House election tracks the implied probability of different outcomes as determined by traders’ wagers. You'll find a dynamic display of current odds, reflecting the collective predictions of the crowd. The dashboard also provides a price history chart, showing how those probabilities have shifted over time, and displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. Total volume for this market is $0. This allows you to see how much activity is occurring and understand market sentiment regarding the election.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages for the PA-08 House election. Polling data often focuses on stated preferences, while this market reflects what individuals are willing to *wager* on. This difference can be significant, as betting involves real financial stakes, potentially leading to more informed predictions. Discrepancies between polls and this market may indicate underlying uncertainties or biases in either data source. It's important to consider both when forming an opinion on the election’s likely outcome.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the winner of the PA-08 House election is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results certified by the relevant election authorities. The market will settle to 100% for the winning candidate as determined by the official vote count. Traders who correctly predicted the winner will receive a payout based on the odds at the time of their trade, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their stake.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major campaign announcements, debate performances, and significant shifts in fundraising totals could all influence trader sentiment. Unexpected endorsements from prominent figures or changes in national political trends could also have an impact. Furthermore, any news related to candidate controversies or changes in voter demographics could cause the odds to shift. Polling data releases, while already considered, could have an outsized effect if they dramatically diverge from current market expectations.