TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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PA-01 House Election Winner
⌛Ending Soon
opinion

Who will win the PA-01 House election?

Oct 19, 2026, 10:22 PM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Brian Fitzpatrick (R)

 - Opinion

Brian Fitzpatrick (R) - Opinion

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 01d:07h:22m

Brian Fitzpatrick (R)

47%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
opinion

Trade on Opinion

At 47¢ buys you 213 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $213 | Net Profit: $113 Multiplier: 2.13x | ROI: 113% APY not meaningful
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
opinion

Brian Fitzpatrick (R)

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 7h 22m
Active
opinion

Bob Harvie (D)

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 7h 22m
Active
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Opinion

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Frequently asked questions

On Opinion, the dashboard for the PA-01 House election tracks the implied probability of different outcomes, the price history of those outcomes, and the 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the volume is $0 and the total volume for this market is $0. Traders on Opinion are expressing their beliefs about who will win this election through buy and sell orders, which dynamically adjust the probabilities displayed. The dashboard provides a real-time view of these collective predictions, allowing you to see how sentiment shifts over time.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different assessment than traditional polling averages for the PA-01 House election. Polling data provides a snapshot of voter intentions at a specific point in time, while this market aggregates the continuous predictions of informed traders. This means the market can incorporate not only current sentiment but also expectations about future events and potential shifts in voter behavior. The difference between the market's implied probability and polling averages can sometimes be significant, offering a unique perspective on the likely outcome.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the winner of the PA-01 House election is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results certified by the relevant election authorities. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predicted outcome matches the certified winner. This provides a clear and objective determination of the market's outcome, ensuring a fair and transparent resolution process.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major news events, such as candidate debates, significant fundraising announcements, or unexpected endorsements, could all shift voter sentiment and impact the implied probabilities. Changes in national political trends, economic indicators, or even local events within the PA-01 district could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, any polling data releases showing a substantial shift in support for a particular candidate would likely cause a corresponding movement in this market.