TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 11:04 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This group forecasts the winner of the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election. The markets consider various candidates and will resolve based on who officially becomes the next mayor of Ottawa.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms fundamentally agree that the market resolves to 'Yes' if one of the listed candidates wins the election, and both acknowledge a need for a resolution source and timeframe.Primary resolution logic: Official results reported by credible news sources and/or the City of OttawaCore resolution logic:
- The market resolves to 'Yes' if Mark Sutcliffe, Jeff Leiper, Catherine McKenney, Alex Lawson, or Neil Saravanamuttoo wins the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election.
- If no listed candidate wins, the Polymarket market will resolve to 'Other' by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and Kalshi will likely resolve to a similar outcome if no listed candidate wins.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Tie: In the unlikely event of a tie, the resolution will follow the official tie-breaking procedures established by the City of Ottawa.
- Candidate Withdrawal: If a candidate withdraws before the election, markets on that candidate will likely resolve to 'No', but the overall election market will remain open for the remaining candidates.
- Delayed Election: If the election is delayed, the resolution date will be adjusted accordingly, but the resolution criteria will remain the same.
Polymarket
The 2026 Ottawa mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottawa.
Kalshi
The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant Ottawa electoral authority. The winner is the candidate who wins according to Ottawa's electoral system and either is inaugurated and takes office or the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. If results are annulled by a court or authority after announcement but before the winner takes office, the contract remains open until a re-run election or expiration.
Frequently asked questions
Several factors could significantly shift the probabilities in this market. Major endorsements from influential figures, unexpected developments in candidate campaigns, and significant shifts in public opinion revealed through polling data could all impact trading activity. Debates and public appearances by the candidates will likely influence perceptions and, consequently, market prices. Any unforeseen events, such as a candidate withdrawing from the race or a major scandal emerging, would also be expected to cause substantial movement in this market.