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OpenAI’s Astra released by…?
Other
polymarket
predict

OpenAI’s Astra released by…?

Total volume:
$360,781
Volume 24h:
$12,890
82%
Liquidity:
$198,130
20%
Open interest:
$114,808N/A

October 31

all

2 markets

Polymarket

90%

Predict

88.7%

consensus

89.4%

+4.4%

spread

88.7-90%

(1.3pp)

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

82%84%86%88%90%92%

Aug 17

Aug 18

Aug 19

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 23

Aug 24

Vol.

$19.2k

·

Resolves Nov 1, 2026

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?

89%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 90¢ buys you 111 shares | Odds: 89% Total Payout: $111 | Net Profit: $11 Multiplier: 1.11x | ROI: 11% | APY: 75% 68 days to resolution
predict

Trade on Predict

At 88.7¢ buys you 113 shares | Odds: 89% Total Payout: $113 | Net Profit: $13 Multiplier: 1.13x | ROI: 13% | APY: 88% 68 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Description

This event group tracks whether OpenAI will release the 'Astra' model, or a confirmed equivalent, to the general public by various end-of-month deadlines in 2026. The release must be publicly accessible, not limited to closed beta or private access.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Predict use identical criteria for what constitutes a qualifying public release of Astra.Primary resolution logic: Official OpenAI announcements, with credible reporting consensus as secondary source

Core resolution logic:

  • Model must be named "Astra" or confirmed equivalent by OpenAI or credible reporting consensus
  • Public accessibility required (open beta or open rolling waitlist); closed beta or private access excluded
  • Release must be announced as publicly accessible by OpenAI or evident on official website

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Labeling errors: Placeholder text or version names on website that do not correspond to actual public access do not qualify
  • GPT-6 or similar labels: Only count if explicitly confirmed to be the same model referenced in the August 1, 2026 announcement
Timing: Markets resolve after the specified deadline (ET) based on whether a qualifying release occurred by that dateOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Show more

Polymarket

On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting. Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Predict

On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting. Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the OpenAI Astra release market aggregates betting data from multiple venues, showing real-time probabilities and volume trends. It displays how traders across platforms price the likelihood of the Astra model launch before the deadline. You can see total volume of $353,670 and 24-hour volume of $6,393, plus a consensus view that reflects market sentiment toward timing and execution.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through collective trader bets that currently assign a high probability to an early release. That crowd-sourced outlook can diverge from traditional analyst forecasts, which may weigh technical readiness or strategic timing differently. Where analysts emphasize roadmap milestones or resource constraints, prediction markets react to sentiment and new signals in near real time.

On Polymarket, traders set the odds based on their own interpretations of timing signals, while Predict may attract different participant pools with alternative views. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, Polymarket currently favors Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026? at 88.5%, while Predict leans toward Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026? at 88.5%. Differences in liquidity, user base bias, or fee structures can also create a spread of 0.0 between the two venues.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. If OpenAI announces a formal release date that falls before the deadline, that triggers a yes outcome. Any lack of official confirmation by that point leads to the alternative result.

Key signals include official statements from OpenAI leadership, developer roadmap updates, or leaked timelines from trusted sources. Major tech conferences where AI announcements are common could shift probabilities, as could competitive releases that accelerate or delay OpenAI’s plans. Each new clue reshapes trader expectations and can cause rapid swings in this market.