TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.4b

24H VOL:

$104,871,197

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,592,701,755

469,827

Markets across

35,657

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,899

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
polymarket

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

Feb 6, 2026, 6:10 PM EST - Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$478,796
Volume 24h:
$13,784
755%
Liquidity:
$156,720
12%
Open interest:
$37,510N/A

1.5T+

 - Polymarket

1.5T+ - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2028

Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

52%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 52.5¢ buys you 190 shares | Odds: 52% Total Payout: $190 | Net Profit: $90 Multiplier: 1.90x | ROI: 90% | APY: 70% 443 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

1.5T+

Trade
52%
Yes 52.5¢No 48.4¢
0.9¢
$8,000
$128,313
11%
25%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

No IPO by December 31, 2027

Trade
23%
3%
Yes 24.6¢No 77.7¢
2.3¢
$11,691
$93,226
1%
3%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

1.25T–1.5T

Trade
9%
Yes 9¢No 92¢
1¢
$15,068
$53,464
0.06%
5%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

1T–1.25T

Trade
4%
Yes 3.9¢No 96.3¢
0.2¢
$35,005
$61,982
0.05%
17%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

750B–1T

Trade
3%
Yes 2.7¢No 97.4¢
0.1¢
$53,247
$68,743
0.06%
1%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

<500B

Trade
3%
Yes 3.1¢No 98.1¢
1.2¢
$19,753
$42,897
0%
7%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

500–750B

Trade
2%
Yes 1.9¢No 98.3¢
0.2¢
$13,955
$30,171
0%
0.5%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
Total markets: 7

Description

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Polymarket

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the OpenAI IPO market tracks the current odds of various closing market cap outcomes. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, along with the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $13,784. Total volume for this market has reached $478,796, indicating significant interest in predicting the valuation of OpenAI’s initial public offering. The dashboard provides a clear visualization of where traders are placing their bets and how sentiment is evolving.

Currently, prediction market participants are indicating a different outlook than many traditional analyst forecasts regarding the OpenAI IPO. While some analysts predict a valuation exceeding $200 billion, this market suggests a wider range of possibilities, with traders assigning probabilities to outcomes both above and below that figure. It’s important to remember that prediction markets reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of participants, potentially incorporating information not readily available in standard financial analysis. This dynamic creates a fascinating comparison point to conventional expert opinions.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing market cap of OpenAI on its IPO day will be used to determine the winning outcome. The resolution will rely on publicly available data from trusted financial news sources and official exchange filings, ensuring transparency and accuracy. Traders should monitor these sources as the resolution date approaches to stay informed about the latest developments and potential impacts on the market.

Several key signals could significantly impact this market. Major announcements regarding OpenAI’s financial performance, such as revenue growth or profitability reports, would likely cause price fluctuations. Regulatory developments affecting the tech industry or IPO processes could also play a role. Broader economic conditions, including interest rate changes or shifts in investor sentiment towards growth stocks, are additional factors to watch. Finally, any news related to competitor IPOs or significant technological breakthroughs from OpenAI itself could move the market as traders adjust their expectations.