TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Open Source market share on Sep 16th
kalshi

What is open source market share?

Volume:
$1,226

Above 65%

 - Kalshi

Above 65% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 17, 2026

Closed: Sep 17, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 65%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$223
N/A
N/A
$223
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 67.5%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$223
N/A
N/A
$223
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 70%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$209
N/A
N/A
$209
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 62.5%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$164
N/A
N/A
$164
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 60%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$146
N/A
N/A
$146
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 72.5%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$109
N/A
N/A
$109
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 55%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$76
N/A
N/A
$76
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 57.5%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$76
N/A
N/A
$76
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 75%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks the adoption of open-source software in AI development by measuring the proportion of open versus closed token usage on a specific platform. It reflects broader trends in transparency and accessibility within technology ecosystems. The outcome depends on whether usage thresholds are met, indicating varying levels of open-source influence.

Kalshi

The event evaluates whether the Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for September 16, 2026, exceeds specified thresholds, with multiple markets each defining a different percentage benchmark for resolution. All markets use the same data source: Vercel AI Gateway's Open vs. Closed Token Volume chart, with the value for September 16, 2026, determined at 10:00 AM ET on September 17, 2026. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the measured open weights share surpasses its respective threshold—ranging from 55% to 75%—and 'No' otherwise. Kalshi clarifies that it holds no official affiliation with Vercel, and all referenced trademarks remain property of their respective owners. The structure allows participants to speculate on varying degrees of open-source adoption, with higher thresholds representing more stringent conditions for a 'Yes' outcome.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the open source market share tracks the current odds of various outcomes related to the percentage of market share held by open source technologies. You'll find the implied probability of different scenarios, a price history showing how those probabilities have shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,226. The total volume traded on this market is $1,226, indicating the level of interest and activity surrounding predictions about the future of open source adoption. This allows traders to quickly assess the market's sentiment.

Currently, it's important to note that there aren't widely available, direct analyst forecasts for the precise percentage of open source market share as defined by this market. However, industry reports and expert opinions generally suggest a growing trend towards open source solutions. This market provides a unique opportunity to see if the collective wisdom of traders on Kalshi aligns with, or diverges from, broader expectations about the increasing role of open source technologies in the tech landscape. Comparing the outcomes of this market to future industry analyses will be insightful.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes for the open source market share. The price of each contract reflects the market's current assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust, providing a dynamic and real-time view of expectations. The higher the price, the more likely the market believes that outcome will occur, and vice versa.

This market resolves around Sep 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on publicly available data regarding the open source market share at the specified time. The exact methodology for determining the market share will be outlined in the market's documentation on Kalshi. Traders should review these details to understand how the final outcome will be determined and verified. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from leading tech companies regarding their adoption of open source technologies, shifts in government regulations concerning software licensing, or the release of groundbreaking new open source projects could all influence trader sentiment. Unexpected security vulnerabilities discovered in proprietary software might also drive increased interest in open source alternatives. Furthermore, broader economic trends and the overall health of the tech industry could play a role in shaping expectations for the open source market share.