TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Open Source market share on Aug 27, 2026
kalshi

Open Source market share on Aug 27, 2026

Volume:
$6,795

Above 52%

 - Kalshi

Above 52% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 28, 2026

Closed: Aug 28, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 52%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,970
N/A
N/A
$1,970
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 54%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
$75
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 68%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,030
N/A
N/A
$2,000
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 66%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,970
N/A
N/A
$1,970
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 64%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$750
N/A
N/A
$750
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 56%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 58%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 60%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 62%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks the proportion of open versus closed token usage in a specific AI system on a particular date. It reflects how much developers and users rely on openly accessible components versus proprietary, closed ones within that system. The outcome depends on whether this open usage share crosses various thresholds.

Kalshi

The event evaluates whether the Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Vercel AI Gateway on August 27, 2026, exceeds specified percentage thresholds ranging from 52% to 68%. Resolution occurs at 10:00 AM ET on August 28, 2026, using the updated value from Vercel AI Gateway's Open vs. Closed Token Volume chart for the prior day. All markets share identical secondary rules, clarifying data source timing and disclaiming any affiliation between Kalshi and Vercel. Thresholds are evaluated sequentially, with any threshold met resulting in a 'Yes' resolution for that specific market. No market interdependencies exist—each threshold operates independently based solely on whether the measured open weights percentage surpasses its defined level.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the open source market share market dashboard tracks the current odds and price history for this prediction, along with its 24-hour volume of $6,795. It provides a real-time view of trader sentiment and market activity, showing how participants price the likelihood of different outcomes for open source adoption levels by the specified date.

Currently, this market’s odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may lean on survey data or historical trends, traders on Kalshi incorporate a broader set of signals, including recent funding rounds and technology adoption rates. The resulting price often diverges from consensus estimates, offering a complementary view of where expert sentiment is headed.

This market resolves around Sep 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will reflect the most authoritative data sources available at that time, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process.

Several signals could shift this market before Sep 4, 2026. Major announcements from leading tech firms adopting open source solutions, significant changes in government policy supporting open source development, or widespread adoption by industry consortia may all influence trader sentiment. Additionally, any surprise shifts in venture capital funding toward open source projects could also create notable movement.