TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.8b

24H VOL:

$153,964,051

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,815,744,871

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,809,858,743

498,684

Markets across

37,244

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,831

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Online Sportsbook Ad Spend in October
kalshi

How will ad spend perform in October?

Oct 1, 2026, 12:00 AM EST - Nov 13, 2026, 1:30 AM EST
Total volume:
$33,352
Volume 24h:
$1,368
51%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$16,705
5%

Above 45

 - Kalshi

Above 45 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 13, 2026

Time left: 19d:15h:36m

Will Online Sportsbook Ad Spend for October 2026 be above 45?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 20% 19 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 45

Trade
99%
Yes 99¢No 2¢
1¢
N/A
$2,786
0%
78%
$1,304
2w 5d 15h
active
kalshi

Above 75

Trade
96%
Yes 97¢No 4¢
1¢
N/A
$6,174
0.18%
12%
$2,147
2w 5d 15h
active
kalshi

Above 95

Trade
94%
Yes 93¢No 11¢
4¢
N/A
$1,375
0.81%
18%
$211
2w 5d 15h
active
kalshi

Above 115

Trade
87%
Yes 88¢No 32¢
20¢
N/A
$5,087
19%
54%
$2,851
2w 5d 15h
active
kalshi

Above 135

Trade
18%
Yes 12¢No 89¢
1¢
N/A
$1,444
0%
33%
$1,080
2w 5d 15h
active
kalshi

Above 175

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$4,000
0%
34%
$1,440
2w 5d 15h
active
kalshi

Above 155

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$4,566
13%
57%
$2,814
2w 5d 15h
active
kalshi

Above 370

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$4,552
0%
3%
$3,832
2w 5d 15h
active
kalshi

Above 195

Trade
1%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$3,367
0%
48%
$1,027
2w 5d 15h
active
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks the performance of online sportsbook advertising expenditures for a specific month, comparing them against various growth thresholds relative to the same month in the previous year. The thresholds represent different levels of year-over-year growth, with higher values indicating stronger expansion in ad spending.

Kalshi

All markets in this event resolve based on the Carbon Arc Online Sportsbook Ad Spend index for October 2026, measured as a year-over-year comparison where 100 indicates equal spending to the same month in the prior year. Markets resolve to 'Yes' if the index exceeds specific thresholds ranging from 45 to 370. Finalized index values will be recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 5th calendar day following the end of October 2026. The index values above 100 signify growth compared to the previous year's October, while values below 100 indicate a decline. It is important to note that Kalshi maintains no official affiliation with Carbon Arc, and all related trademarks remain property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the sportsbook ad spend market tracks the current price of contracts, reflecting predictions about total ad spend in October. It also displays a price history chart, allowing users to visualize how expectations have changed over time. Furthermore, the dashboard shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,368, and the total volume traded to date, which is $33,352. This provides a clear picture of market activity and sentiment surrounding anticipated spending by online sportsbooks on advertising.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders on Kalshi offers a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the sportsbook ad spend market. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market expresses predictions as probabilities across all possible outcomes. These probabilities can be interpreted as a distribution of beliefs about the likely level of ad spend. Discrepancies between the market price and analyst expectations can highlight areas of disagreement or differing information sets, offering valuable insights for those following this sector.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the final ad spend total. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and provide a real-time assessment of expectations regarding October’s ad spend.

This market resolves around Nov 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on independently verified data regarding total ad spend by online sportsbooks during the month of October. The final price of contracts on Kalshi will reflect the actual ad spend amount, providing a clear measure of the market’s predictive accuracy. Traders will then be able to see how their predictions aligned with the realized outcome.

Several signals or events could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Major announcements from leading sportsbook operators regarding their marketing strategies, changes in regulatory environments affecting advertising, and broader economic indicators impacting consumer spending could all cause shifts in expectations. Unexpected news related to major sporting events scheduled for October, or the launch of new sportsbook platforms, could also move the market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding price fluctuations in the sportsbook ad spend market.