TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 6:19 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Ongo Niua 17 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Ongo Niua 17 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
Polymarket
A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Ongo Niua 17 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Ongo Niua 17 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, the odds on Polymarket offer a different perspective than traditional polling data. While polls attempt to capture a snapshot of voter intent at a specific moment, this market reflects what individuals are willing to risk capital on. This can sometimes lead to divergences, as market participants may incorporate additional information or have different interpretations of polling data. It’s important to remember that prediction markets are forward-looking, attempting to forecast the ultimate result, whereas polls reflect past or present sentiment. The difference between the two can be significant, potentially indicating disagreement with the prevailing polling averages.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Ongo Niua by-election. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect new information and changing sentiment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price is determined solely by supply and demand within Polymarket, and is not influenced by external factors or other prediction markets.
This market resolves around Oct 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the winner of the Ongo Niua by-election is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be determined by the official announcement from the relevant electoral authority. The market will then settle to 100% probability for the winning candidate and 0% for all others. Traders holding contracts on the winning outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on losing outcomes will forfeit their stake. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on publicly available information.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 8, 2026. Major endorsements from prominent political figures, unexpected shifts in public opinion revealed by late-stage polling, or significant campaign events could all influence trading activity. Any news related to candidate controversies or changes in the political landscape could also lead to price fluctuations. Furthermore, large trading volume from well-informed participants could also signal a shift in expectations and cause the market to react accordingly. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding the dynamics of this market.
