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Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff margin of victory?
Elections
kalshi

Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff margin of victory?

Aug 17, 2026, 7:37 PM EST - Aug 25, 2027, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$97,304
Volume 24h:
$104
81%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$54,036
0%

Mike Mazzei, 0-3%

 - Kalshi

Mike Mazzei, 0-3% - Kalshi

100%

+79%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 24

Aug 24

Aug 25

Aug 26

Aug 28

Vol.

$17.1k

·

Resolves Aug 25, 2027

Will the margin of victory for Mike Mazzei in the 2026 Oklahoma Republican gubernatorial runoff be between 0% and 3%?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: 0% Illiquid market 362 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Total markets: 12

Description

The event tracks the competitive dynamics of the 2026 Oklahoma Republican gubernatorial runoff between two primary candidates. It focuses on measuring how decisively one candidate outperforms the other in terms of voter support, reflecting the potential strength of each campaign's appeal to voters.

Kalshi

The event determines whether the margin of victory for either Mike Mazzei or Gentner Drummond in the 2026 Oklahoma Republican gubernatorial runoff falls within specified percentage ranges. Each market corresponds to a specific candidate and a defined margin range, from 0% to over 15%. The margin of victory is calculated as the difference in vote share between the winning candidate and the runner-up; if a candidate loses, the margin is negative, and a tie results in a zero margin. All ranges are inclusive of the lower bound and exclusive of the upper bound, with no rounding applied to the final margin percentage. Votes for a candidate running under multiple parties or listings are aggregated to determine the total vote share. The market resolves to 'Yes' for the applicable candidate and margin range market if the actual margin matches the conditions, otherwise it resolves to 'No'.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Oklahoma Governor runoff margin market shows current odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $104. It provides a real-time view of trader sentiment and betting patterns for this specific election outcome, allowing users to monitor how the market expects the margin of victory to unfold.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders actively set the price through buying and selling contracts that represent different possible margins of victory. The current implied probability reflects the collective assessment of all participants, adjusting continuously based on new information, news coverage, and developments in the campaign. This dynamic pricing mechanism captures a broad range of expectations and risk assessments.

This market resolves around Aug 25, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the official election results are verified against credible public sources. The final margin of victory will be determined by the certified vote count following the runoff election, and the market will close based on that official figure.

Several signals could shift this market before resolution, including debate performance, major endorsements, scandals or controversies involving the candidates, and shifts in polling data. Economic announcements, changes in voter registration numbers, and campaign spending reports may also influence trader sentiment. Any event that significantly alters the perceived likelihood of a particular margin will cause price adjustments in this market.