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NYC Mayor # posts October 27 - November 3, 2026?
20-39
- Polymarket
20-39 - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 13h:19m:26s
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?
$
Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani (@NYCMayor), posts on X between October 27, 12:00 PM ET and November 3, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani (@NYCMayor), posts on X between October 27, 12:00 PM ET and November 3, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling averages, as polls focused on the number of social media posts by the NYC mayor are not commonly conducted. However, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information than polls, including news events, expert opinions, and even subtle signals from social media. This can lead to differences between prediction market probabilities and polling data, as this market reflects a collective assessment of all available information regarding the mayor’s likely online activity.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater likelihood. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, leading to a dynamic and efficient price discovery process. The current top outcome, as indicated by the highest share price, is for the NYC mayor to post between 140-159 posts, with a chance percentage of 97.8%.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The number of posts made by the NYC mayor on their official social media accounts between October 27 and November 3, 2026, will be counted to determine the winning outcome. The final count will be based on publicly available data, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process. The market will then settle based on which range of posts the actual number falls into.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major policy announcements from the mayor’s office, changes in the mayor’s communication strategy, or significant news coverage related to the mayor’s activities could all influence trader sentiment. Unexpected events, such as a major crisis or a high-profile public appearance, could also lead to shifts in the market. Additionally, any indications of the mayor's planned social media engagement during that period will likely impact the odds in this market.
