TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$87,997,338
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,395,155,069
395,664
Markets across
30,076
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,626
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 100k
- Kalshi
Above 100k - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 20, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 20, 11:04 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market on Kalshi tracks whether total votes cast in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary will exceed 80,000. Currently, the probability of turnout surpassing this threshold stands at 71.0% on Kalshi. Resolution will be determined by the official vote count reported for all participants in the primary, with the market resolving Yes if total votes reach above 110,000. Watch the actual primary election scheduled for June 2026 to see whether voter participation in this district meets or exceeds the tracked thresholds.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on the officially certified total vote count for all participants in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary, as determined by the relevant election authority. All ballot types—provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, and electronic—are included only if reflected in the official certification. For ranked-choice or preferential voting systems, the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority applies. Resolution uses officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals; preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, and uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid. If postponed beyond one year or canceled entirely, all contracts resolve to No.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect traders' collective expectations about NY-12 Democratic primary turnout, which may diverge from traditional polling averages. While polls typically measure voter intent or historical turnout patterns, prediction markets incorporate real-money incentives and continuous price discovery. Comparing market-implied probabilities to analyst forecasts and historical turnout data for NY-12 can reveal whether traders expect higher or lower participation than conventional estimates suggest, offering a complementary perspective on turnout likelihood.
The NY-12 Democratic primary: voter turnout market resolves on Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is determined by the official total vote count reported for all participants in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary election. The market will settle based on whether that final tally meets or exceeds the 120,000-vote threshold specified in the contract terms. Official election results from New York authorities will serve as the authoritative source for determining the outcome and settling all positions.
Several factors could shift market odds for NY-12 turnout before Jan 1, 2027. Changes in candidate field size, high-profile endorsements, or campaign momentum could alter voter enthusiasm. Local media coverage, voter registration drives, and early voting participation data may signal turnout trends. National political events or shifts in Democratic primary dynamics could affect interest in the race. Additionally, historical turnout comparisons to prior NY-12 primaries and real-time early voting numbers as the election approaches will likely influence trader positioning and market pricing.
