TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 7:22 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD.
Currently, prediction market participants are expressing a strong belief that NVIDIA stock will close at a high value during the week of October 12. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts, which present a wider range of potential outcomes, though generally optimistic. It's important to note that analysts base their predictions on fundamental and technical analysis, while this market reflects the collective wisdom – and risk appetite – of traders who are putting capital behind their beliefs. The market provides a real-time assessment of probabilities, potentially differing from static analyst reports.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the closing stock price of NVIDIA (NVDA) for the week of October 12 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will reflect whether the stock closes above or below a pre-defined threshold, as determined by the market’s structure on Polymarket. Resolution will be based on publicly available financial data, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or settle their losing positions.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Major news regarding NVIDIA’s earnings, new product announcements, or changes in the broader semiconductor industry could all trigger price movements. Unexpected macroeconomic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions, could also impact investor sentiment and, consequently, the price of NVIDIA stock. Any significant shifts in analyst ratings or large institutional trades could also move this market. Monitoring these events will be crucial for understanding the evolving probabilities reflected in the market.