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NVIDIA H100 SXM Compute Price Up or Down by May 29, 2026?
kalshi

NVIDIA H100 SXM Compute Price Up or Down by May 29, 2026?

Volume:
$2,027

Price to Beat: 3.04

 - Kalshi

Price to Beat: 3.04 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved May 29, 2026

Closed: May 29, 5:00 PM EST

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Price to Beat: 3.04

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,027
N/A
N/A
$1,842
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Intro

This market tracks whether the hourly compute cost of an NVIDIA H100 SXM GPU will exceed $3.04 on Kalshi. Currently, the leading outcome—that H100 SXM price moves up—stands at 5.0% probability. Resolution will be determined by the official compute pricing assessment on May 29, 2026, as specified by Kalshi's resolution source. Watch for announcements regarding GPU supply dynamics and competitive pricing pressures in the weeks leading up to the May 29, 2026 resolution date, as these factors will directly influence whether compute costs breach the $3.04 threshold.

Frequently asked questions

The market resolves on May 29, 2026. Resolution is determined by comparing official NVIDIA H100 SXM compute pricing at that date to a baseline reference point established at market creation. The outcome hinges on whether the verified price has moved upward or downward relative to that baseline. Traders should monitor NVIDIA's official pricing announcements, data center GPU cost sheets, and any public pricing updates from authorized distributors leading up to resolution to assess which direction is more likely.

Key catalysts include NVIDIA earnings calls and guidance on GPU pricing strategy, announcements of next-generation compute chips that could pressure H100 SXM costs, data center capex trends and customer demand signals, competitive GPU launches from AMD or others, geopolitical export restrictions affecting supply, and macroeconomic shifts in AI infrastructure spending. Supply-chain disruptions, manufacturing yield improvements, and bulk customer negotiations can also shift pricing expectations. Regulatory changes around chip export or tariffs, plus shifts in enterprise AI adoption rates, may influence whether NVIDIA maintains or reduces H100 SXM pricing through May 2026.