TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 23, 11:00 AM EST
Predict
This market will resolve to "Up" if the NVDA/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the NVDA/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the NVDA/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/nvda-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink NVDA/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T14:45:00Z
This market will resolve to "Up" if the NVDA/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the NVDA/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the NVDA/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/nvda-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink NVDA/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T14:45:00Z
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are bullish on NVIDIA’s long-term prospects, this market allows traders to express their beliefs about a very short-term price movement. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and expert opinions, as the market incorporates a wider range of information and reflects the collective judgment of many participants. This provides a unique signal, distinct from standard financial analysis.
On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the NVIDIA stock will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts directly reflects the probability of that outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe the stock will rise, the higher the price of the 'Up' contracts, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date collective intelligence.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether the NVIDIA stock price is higher or lower at 11:00 AM ET on October 23rd compared to its price at 10:45 AM ET. The final price will be sourced from a major financial exchange, ensuring an objective and transparent determination of the result. Traders will then be paid out based on their positions in the market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Unexpected news regarding NVIDIA’s earnings, new product announcements, or major shifts in the semiconductor industry could all impact trader sentiment. Broader market trends, such as overall economic data releases or changes in interest rates, could also play a role. Finally, any significant news related to NVIDIA’s competitors or key suppliers could influence the price action in this market, leading to shifts in probabilities.