TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.2b

24H VOL:

$192,072,993

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,983,476,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,842,388,377

408,027

Markets across

40,419

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,369

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Number of Elon Musk tweets Sep 28th - Oct 5th 2026
predict

How many tweets will Elon Musk post?

Volume:
$0

0-99

 - Predict

0-99 - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 12:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

0-99

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

100-199

View
N/A
N/A
—
$925
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

200-299

View
N/A
N/A
—
$11
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

300-399

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

400-499

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

500+

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve according to the number of times [@elonmusk](https://x.com/elonmusk) posts on X from Sep 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET to Oct 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET (exclusive). **Date Range (Exclusive):** Tweets up to the last second before the end date will count. For example, if the market ends at 12:00 PM ET, any tweet up to 11:59:59 AM ET will count, but tweets at or after 12:00:00 PM ET will not count. **Posts That Count:** - Main feed posts - Quote posts - Reposts **Replies:** Requirements for rules to count: - The entire "reply chain" all the way up to the original post MUST belong to the tracked user. - Replies to reposts only count IF the original post is from the same user. Replies to reposts of other users' posts do not count. **Examples:** - Reply to own quote post that counts: [x.com/cz_binance/status/2015101858034110785](https://x.com/cz_binance/status/2015101858034110785) - Reply on main feed that counts: [x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576) - Reply chain that does not count: [x.com/elonmusk/status/2015300934029484133](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2015300934029484133) - Reply to repost from different user that does not count: [x.com/elonmusk/status/2014774464047718450](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2014774464047718450) **Additional Rules:** - Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker - Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker will not count toward the total - Post edits are treated by X as new posts and thus count toward the total **Resolution Source:** The main resolution source for this market will be the 'Tweet Counter' figure for posts found at [predict.fun/x/elonmusk](https://predict.fun/x/elonmusk). If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the number of times [@elonmusk](https://x.com/elonmusk) posts on X from Sep 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET to Oct 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET (exclusive). **Date Range (Exclusive):** Tweets up to the last second before the end date will count. For example, if the market ends at 12:00 PM ET, any tweet up to 11:59:59 AM ET will count, but tweets at or after 12:00:00 PM ET will not count. **Posts That Count:** - Main feed posts - Quote posts - Reposts **Replies:** Requirements for rules to count: - The entire "reply chain" all the way up to the original post MUST belong to the tracked user. - Replies to reposts only count IF the original post is from the same user. Replies to reposts of other users' posts do not count. **Examples:** - Reply to own quote post that counts: [x.com/cz_binance/status/2015101858034110785](https://x.com/cz_binance/status/2015101858034110785) - Reply on main feed that counts: [x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576) - Reply chain that does not count: [x.com/elonmusk/status/2015300934029484133](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2015300934029484133) - Reply to repost from different user that does not count: [x.com/elonmusk/status/2014774464047718450](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2014774464047718450) **Additional Rules:** - Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker - Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker will not count toward the total - Post edits are treated by X as new posts and thus count toward the total **Resolution Source:** The main resolution source for this market will be the 'Tweet Counter' figure for posts found at [predict.fun/x/elonmusk](https://predict.fun/x/elonmusk). If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the Elon Musk tweet count tracks the current odds of various outcomes for the number of tweets he’ll make between September 28th and October 5th, 2026. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $0. Total volume for this market is $0. This allows you to see how actively traders are participating and where the market currently stands in its predictions regarding the Elon Musk tweet count.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare this market to specific analyst forecasts, as predicting Elon Musk’s tweeting behavior is inherently speculative. However, generally, prediction markets often outperform traditional polls or expert opinions, as they aggregate the wisdom of the crowd and incentivize accurate predictions through financial stakes. If analysts predict a specific range for the Elon Musk tweet count, you can compare those expectations to the probabilities reflected in this market on Predict to see where the collective prediction diverges or aligns.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes for the Elon Musk tweet count. The price of each contract reflects the market’s probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust, providing a dynamic assessment of the likelihood of each scenario. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand, with higher demand for a particular outcome increasing its price and, consequently, its implied probability.

This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of tweets posted by Elon Musk between September 28th and October 5th, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final count will be sourced from a publicly available record of his tweets, and the outcome corresponding to that range will be determined. Traders holding contracts for the correct outcome will receive a payout based on the market’s pricing at resolution.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any announcements from Elon Musk regarding changes to his social media habits, or his overall activity level on X (formerly Twitter), could shift the probabilities. Major news events impacting Tesla, SpaceX, or other ventures he leads might also affect his tweeting frequency. Unexpected events, such as significant world events or personal circumstances, could also play a role. Increased media coverage focusing on his social media use could also drive trading activity and move this market.