TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Number of Elon Musk tweets Oct 5th - Oct 12th 2026
predict

How many tweets will Elon Musk post?

Volume:
$67

500+

 - Predict

500+ - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 12, 2026

Closed: Oct 12, 12:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

500+

View
90%
Yes 90¢No 10¢
—
$53
$53
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

0-99

View
10%
Yes 10¢No 90¢
—
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

100-199

View
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

200-299

View
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

300-399

View
N/A
N/A
—
$1,010
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

400-499

View
N/A
N/A
—
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve according to the number of times [@elonmusk](https://x.com/elonmusk) posts on X from Oct 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET to Oct 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET (exclusive). **Date Range (Exclusive):** Tweets up to the last second before the end date will count. For example, if the market ends at 12:00 PM ET, any tweet up to 11:59:59 AM ET will count, but tweets at or after 12:00:00 PM ET will not count. **Posts That Count:** - Main feed posts - Quote posts - Reposts **Replies:** Requirements for rules to count: - The entire "reply chain" all the way up to the original post MUST belong to the tracked user. - Replies to reposts only count IF the original post is from the same user. Replies to reposts of other users' posts do not count. **Examples:** - Reply to own quote post that counts: [x.com/cz_binance/status/2015101858034110785](https://x.com/cz_binance/status/2015101858034110785) - Reply on main feed that counts: [x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576) - Reply chain that does not count: [x.com/elonmusk/status/2015300934029484133](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2015300934029484133) - Reply to repost from different user that does not count: [x.com/elonmusk/status/2014774464047718450](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2014774464047718450) **Additional Rules:** - Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker - Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker will not count toward the total - Post edits are treated by X as new posts and thus count toward the total **Resolution Source:** The main resolution source for this market will be the 'Tweet Counter' figure for posts found at [predict.fun/x/elonmusk](https://predict.fun/x/elonmusk). If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the number of times [@elonmusk](https://x.com/elonmusk) posts on X from Oct 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET to Oct 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET (exclusive). **Date Range (Exclusive):** Tweets up to the last second before the end date will count. For example, if the market ends at 12:00 PM ET, any tweet up to 11:59:59 AM ET will count, but tweets at or after 12:00:00 PM ET will not count. **Posts That Count:** - Main feed posts - Quote posts - Reposts **Replies:** Requirements for rules to count: - The entire "reply chain" all the way up to the original post MUST belong to the tracked user. - Replies to reposts only count IF the original post is from the same user. Replies to reposts of other users' posts do not count. **Examples:** - Reply to own quote post that counts: [x.com/cz_binance/status/2015101858034110785](https://x.com/cz_binance/status/2015101858034110785) - Reply on main feed that counts: [x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576) - Reply chain that does not count: [x.com/elonmusk/status/2015300934029484133](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2015300934029484133) - Reply to repost from different user that does not count: [x.com/elonmusk/status/2014774464047718450](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2014774464047718450) **Additional Rules:** - Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker - Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker will not count toward the total - Post edits are treated by X as new posts and thus count toward the total **Resolution Source:** The main resolution source for this market will be the 'Tweet Counter' figure for posts found at [predict.fun/x/elonmusk](https://predict.fun/x/elonmusk). If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the Elon Musk tweet count tracks the current odds of various outcomes for the total number of tweets Elon Musk will post between October 5th and October 12th, 2026. You’ll find a price history showing how these odds have changed over time, along with the 24-hour volume, which currently stands at $53. The total volume traded on this market is $67. This allows traders to see how much activity there is and gauge market sentiment regarding the likely number of tweets.

It's interesting to compare the predictions made in this market to those from analysts and public polls. Currently, the most likely outcome suggests that Elon Musk will tweet between 0 and 99 times during the specified period. However, traditional forecasts often rely on historical data and may not fully account for unexpected events or changes in Musk's activity. This market provides a dynamic, real-time assessment of expectations, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to make accurate predictions.

On Predict, this market is priced using a mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy contracts for a particular outcome, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. Conversely, if more people sell, the price decreases. This creates a continuously updated assessment of the likelihood of each scenario for the Elon Musk tweet count.

This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of tweets posted by Elon Musk between October 5th and October 12th, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final count will be sourced from a publicly available record of his activity on X (formerly Twitter). The market will then settle to reflect the outcome that corresponds to the actual number of tweets posted during that timeframe, paying out to those who correctly predicted the range.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major announcements from Tesla or SpaceX, changes in Elon Musk’s public engagement strategy, or even significant global events could all impact his tweeting activity. Unexpected controversies or periods of increased media attention surrounding Musk could also lead to a surge in tweets. Conversely, a deliberate decision to reduce his social media presence would likely decrease the predicted tweet count. Monitoring these types of signals will be key to understanding how this market evolves.