TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Noble FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Mar 26, 2026, 11:47 AM EST - Jan 1, 2028, 12:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$16,435
Volume 24h:
$2,785
30%
Liquidity:
$165,711
180%
Open interest:
$117
0%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Noble's official token will achieve specific Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) thresholds at exactly 4:00 PM ET on the day following its public launch. The group contains eight linked markets at FDV levels of $50M, $100M, $200M, $300M, $500M, $700M, and $1B, all measuring the same underlying metric (token supply × token price) at the same moment in time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms use identical resolution criteria, timing (4:00 PM ET one day after launch), FDV calculation methodology (supply × price), token qualification rules, and deadline (December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET).
Primary resolution logic:
The most liquid price source available for the official Noble token at the specified resolution timeCore resolution logic:
- FDV is determined by multiplying total token supply by the token price at exactly 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch
- Only an official token launched by Noble qualifies; stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs, and synthetic tokens are excluded
- The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a valid launch
- Each market resolves Yes if FDV exceeds the specified threshold, No otherwise
- If Noble does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets in the group resolve to No
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Multiple token launches: If Noble launches multiple tokens, only the first official token launch qualifies for resolution
- Illiquid or delisted token: If the token becomes illiquid or delisted before 4:00 PM ET on the resolution day, the most recent liquid price before delisting is used
- Token supply changes: Total token supply is measured at 4:00 PM ET on the resolution day; any minting, burning, or supply adjustments up to that moment are included in the calculation
- Launch timing ambiguity: Launch is defined as the moment the token becomes actively and publicly tradable; if trading begins after 4:00 PM ET, resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET the following calendar day
Timing:
Resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the official public launch of Noble's token. If no launch occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve to No on that deadline.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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