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Noble FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Crypto
polymarket
predict

Noble FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Mar 26, 2026, 11:44 AM EST - Jan 1, 2028, 12:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$542,856
Volume 24h:
$9,929N/A
Liquidity:
$294,164
30%
Open interest:
$1,477N/A

$100M

all

2 markets

Polymarket

29%

Predict

14.5%

consensus

21.8%

-5.2%

spread

14.5-29%

(14.5pp)

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 25

Aug 27

Vol.

$9.5k

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2028

Noble FDV above $100M one day after launch?

29%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 29¢ buys you 345 shares | Odds: 29% Total Payout: $345 | Net Profit: $245 Multiplier: 3.45x | ROI: 245% | APY: 151% Low liquidity 492 days to resolution
predict

Trade on Predict

At 14.5¢ buys you 690 shares | Odds: 12% Total Payout: $690 | Net Profit: $590 Multiplier: 6.90x | ROI: 590% | APY: 319% 492 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
MUI X License key version mismatch
Total markets: 14

Intro

This market tracks whether Noble's official token will achieve a Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) above $100 million exactly one day after its public launch. The aggregated consensus probability for this outcome stands at 34.0%, with data drawn from Polymarket and Predict, and resolved using the most liquid price source for the Noble token at 4:00 PM ET on the day following launch. The second most likely outcome, at 20.5%, is Noble FDV above $50 million. Watch the 4:00 PM ET token price on January 1, 2028, the specified resolution time.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use identical resolution criteria, timing (4:00 PM ET one day after launch), FDV calculation methodology (supply × price), token qualification rules, and deadline (December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET).Primary resolution logic: The most liquid price source available for the official Noble token at the specified resolution time

Core resolution logic:

  • FDV is determined by multiplying total token supply by the token price at exactly 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch
  • Only an official token launched by Noble qualifies; stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs, and synthetic tokens are excluded
  • The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a valid launch
  • Each market resolves Yes if FDV exceeds the specified threshold, No otherwise
  • If Noble does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets in the group resolve to No

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Multiple token launches: If Noble launches multiple tokens, only the first official token launch qualifies for resolution
  • Illiquid or delisted token: If the token becomes illiquid or delisted before 4:00 PM ET on the resolution day, the most recent liquid price before delisting is used
  • Token supply changes: Total token supply is measured at 4:00 PM ET on the resolution day; any minting, burning, or supply adjustments up to that moment are included in the calculation
  • Launch timing ambiguity: Launch is defined as the moment the token becomes actively and publicly tradable; if trading begins after 4:00 PM ET, resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET the following calendar day
Timing: Resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the official public launch of Noble's token. If no launch occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve to No on that deadline.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Show more

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Noble's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Noble will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Noble (https://x.com/noble_xyz) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Noble's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Noble will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Noble (https://x.com/noble_xyz) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently asked questions

The Noble FDV above ___ one day after launch? dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity across Polymarket and Predict, two leading crypto prediction platforms. It tracks the consensus probability that Noble's fully diluted valuation will exceed a specified threshold within one day of its launch. With total group volume of $532,621 and recent 24-hour activity at $680, the dashboard reflects active market participation and evolving sentiment around Noble's post-launch valuation trajectory.

Polymarket and Predict may show different implied probabilities due to variations in user base, liquidity depth, and trading incentives. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket currently shows 29.0% percent implied probability, while Predict reflects 15.5% percent, a spread of 13.5 percentage points. These differences arise from distinct participant demographics, fee structures, and market-making strategies. Arbitrage opportunities between platforms can gradually narrow such spreads, but temporary divergences persist due to segmented liquidity and differing risk assessments of Noble's launch success.

The market resolves on Jan 1, 2028. Resolution hinges on whether Noble's fully diluted valuation reaches the specified threshold exactly one day after its official launch. The outcome is determined by verifiable on-chain and market data capturing Noble's FDV at the designated resolution timestamp. Participants should monitor Noble's launch announcement and official timeline to confirm the precise one-day mark for valuation assessment.

Key catalysts include Noble's official launch date announcement, token supply and distribution details, exchange listing confirmations, and early trading volume on major platforms. Broader crypto market sentiment, Bitcoin and Ethereum price movements, and competing stablecoin or blockchain launches can also shift expectations. Community adoption signals, developer partnerships, and regulatory clarity around Noble's use case will influence perceived post-launch valuation. Pre-launch marketing campaigns and institutional interest may drive anticipation, while any security concerns or delays could dampen FDV projections heading into day one.