TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.8b

24H VOL:

$153,964,051

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,815,744,871

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,809,858,743

498,684

Markets across

37,244

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,831

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Science and Technology
Noble FDV above ___ one day after launch?
polymarket
predict

Noble FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Mar 26, 2026, 11:44 AM EST - Jan 1, 2028, 12:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$557,169
Volume 24h:
$1,072
98%
Liquidity:
$347,445
0.06%
Open interest:
$2,811N/A

$100M

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2028

Noble FDV above $100M one day after launch?

17%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 21¢ buys you 476 shares | Odds: 17% Total Payout: $476 | Net Profit: $376 Multiplier: 4.76x | ROI: 376% | APY: 272% Low liquidity 433 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$100M

Trade
17%
1%
Yes 21¢No 87¢
8¢
$414
$1,372
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
predict

$100M

Trade
12%
Yes 13.5¢No 89.5¢
3¢
$42,204
$143,240
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
12%
Yes 17.3¢No 88.3¢
Avg: 5.5¢Max: 8¢
polymarket

$200M

Trade
14%
1%
Yes 15¢No 86¢
1¢
$208
$3,639
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
predict

$200M

Trade
11%
Yes 13.5¢No 91.4¢
4.9¢
$45,867
$58,205
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
11.3%
Yes 14.3¢No 88.7¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 4.9¢
polymarket

$500M

Trade
10%
Yes 11.5¢No 91.7¢
3.2¢
$294
$3,314
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
predict

$500M

Trade
9%
Yes 11.1¢No 93.1¢
4.2¢
$46,633
$35,484
0%
0.05%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
9.1%
Yes 11.3¢No 92.4¢
Avg: 3.7¢Max: 4.2¢
polymarket

$50M

Trade
12%
2%
Yes 14¢No 91¢
5¢
$285
$4,567
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
predict

$50M

Trade
9%
Yes 11.3¢No 93.8¢
5.1¢
$40,924
$61,828
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
9%
Yes 12.7¢No 92.4¢
Avg: 5.1¢Max: 5.1¢
polymarket

$300M

Trade
13%
Yes 14¢No 89¢
3¢
$202
$2,634
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
predict

$300M

Trade
9%
Yes 10.4¢No 93.3¢
3.7¢
$37,213
$61,053
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
8.7%
Yes 12.2¢No 91.1¢
Avg: 3.4¢Max: 3.7¢
polymarket

$700M

Trade
6%
Yes 7¢No 96¢
3¢
$174
$1,072
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
predict

$700M

Trade
5%
Yes 5.8¢No 95¢
0.8¢
$46,121
$68,080
0%
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
5.4%
Yes 6.4¢No 95.5¢
Avg: 1.9¢Max: 3¢
predict

$1B

Trade
4%
Yes 4.3¢No 95.8¢
0.1¢
$86,736
$111,119
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
polymarket

$1B

Trade
4%
Yes 4.9¢No 96.9¢
1.8¢
$170
$1,562
0%
0%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
4.2%
Yes 4.6¢No 96.4¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1.8¢
Total markets: 14

Intro

This market tracks whether Noble’s Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) will exceed $100 million one day after its public launch, as determined by the most liquid price source available for the official Noble token at the specified resolution time. Currently, the consensus probability of this outcome is 13.5%. Aggregated from Polymarket and Predict, this event group also includes a market on Noble FDV exceeding $50 million, currently at 13.0%. Resolution will be based on FDV calculated as total token supply multiplied by the token price at 4:00 PM ET on the day following launch. Keep an eye on the official Noble token launch date, as the resolution window begins immediately after that event.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use identical resolution criteria, timing (4:00 PM ET one day after launch), FDV calculation methodology (supply × price), token qualification rules, and deadline (December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET).Primary resolution logic: The most liquid price source available for the official Noble token at the specified resolution time

Core resolution logic:

  • FDV is determined by multiplying total token supply by the token price at exactly 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch
  • Only an official token launched by Noble qualifies; stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs, and synthetic tokens are excluded
  • The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a valid launch
  • Each market resolves Yes if FDV exceeds the specified threshold, No otherwise
  • If Noble does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets in the group resolve to No

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Multiple token launches: If Noble launches multiple tokens, only the first official token launch qualifies for resolution
  • Illiquid or delisted token: If the token becomes illiquid or delisted before 4:00 PM ET on the resolution day, the most recent liquid price before delisting is used
  • Token supply changes: Total token supply is measured at 4:00 PM ET on the resolution day; any minting, burning, or supply adjustments up to that moment are included in the calculation
  • Launch timing ambiguity: Launch is defined as the moment the token becomes actively and publicly tradable; if trading begins after 4:00 PM ET, resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET the following calendar day
Timing: Resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the official public launch of Noble's token. If no launch occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve to No on that deadline.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Noble's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Noble will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Noble (https://x.com/noble_xyz) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Noble's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Noble will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Noble (https://x.com/noble_xyz) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, represent the collective wisdom of traders regarding future events. They differ from simple spot price expectations because they reflect not just the probability of an event occurring, but also the potential magnitude of the outcome. In the case of Noble’s FDV, the price of shares today doesn’t fully encapsulate the market’s belief about its long-term potential. This market allows participants to express their views on that potential, creating a forward-looking price discovery mechanism. The current implied probability of Noble’s FDV exceeding $50 million is reflected in the prices on Polymarket and Predict.

Prices on Polymarket and Predict for this market may diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and risk appetite, which can lead to differing opinions on the likelihood of Noble’s FDV exceeding $50 million. Furthermore, liquidity levels can vary between the two platforms, influencing price discovery. For example, Polymarket currently favors the outcome of Noble FDV above $50M at 17.0%, while Predict leans toward the same outcome at 12.0%. These differences highlight the importance of considering multiple sources of information when evaluating the market’s overall sentiment.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the FDV of Noble will be assessed one day after its launch, using publicly available data. The market will determine whether the FDV is above or below $50 million at that time. The resolution will be based on a snapshot of the FDV as reported by trusted sources, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome. Traders should monitor news and data releases related to Noble’s launch to stay informed about potential catalysts that could influence the resolution.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Jan 1, 2028. Key catalysts include the official launch date of Noble, initial trading volume and price action of the Noble token, and any major announcements from the Noble team regarding partnerships, technological advancements, or adoption rates. Positive news regarding these factors could drive up the price of this market, indicating increased confidence in Noble’s FDV exceeding $50 million. Conversely, negative developments or delays could push prices down. Monitoring social media sentiment and industry news related to Noble will be crucial for understanding potential market movements.