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Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
Politics
polymarket

When will the next round of US-Iran peace talks occur?

Jun 22, 2026, 10:37 PM EST - Mar 31, 2027, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$9,765,460
Volume 24h:
$203,796
98%
Liquidity:
$576,274
2%
Open interest:
$383,208N/A

March 31, 2027

 - Polymarket

March 31, 2027 - Polymarket

61%

-36.2%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

60%70%80%90%

Aug 17

Aug 18

Aug 18

Aug 19

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 21

Vol.

$23.1k

·

Resolves Apr 1, 2027

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?

61%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 61¢ buys you 164 shares | Odds: 61% Total Payout: $164 | Net Profit: $64 Multiplier: 1.64x | ROI: 64% | APY: 125% 222 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
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Chance %
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Spread
Liquidity
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24h
7d
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Ends in
Result

Intro

This market tracks whether a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran will occur by March 31, 2027, according to Polymarket. The current probability of a meeting happening stands at 70.0%, with resolution based on official government information and credible media reporting. The next key catalyst to watch will be the continuation of technical talks following the progress reported after the initial round concluded on June 22.

Polymarket

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

The US-Iran peace talks market dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and trading activity for whether diplomatic talks between the US and Iran will occur by a specified deadline. The interface displays the current probability, historical price movements, and live order flow. Total liquidity across this market stands at $9,765,460, with $139,054 in trades over the last 24 hours, reflecting active trader interest in geopolitical developments affecting US-Iran relations.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional polling because traders incorporate real-time information, geopolitical signals, and diplomatic statements that surveys may lag. While polls measure public sentiment about peace prospects, this market reflects the aggregated financial bets of participants who stand to gain or lose based on actual outcomes. Traders typically price in breaking news, expert commentary, and historical precedent faster than polling cycles update, making prediction markets a forward-looking complement to conventional opinion research.

On Polymarket, traders set the odds by buying and selling shares that represent "yes" or "no" outcomes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective assessment of whether a US-Iran diplomatic meeting will occur by the deadline. Shares trade continuously, and the market price—expressed as a percentage—represents the implied probability. Higher prices indicate stronger trader confidence in talks materializing, while lower prices suggest skepticism about near-term diplomatic engagement.

This market resolves around Apr 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution hinges on whether a formal or substantive round of US-Iran peace talks has been announced and initiated by that date. Official government statements, diplomatic channels, and established news sources will determine whether the threshold for resolution has been met, ensuring clarity and fairness for all traders.

Key catalysts include official diplomatic announcements, statements from US or Iranian government officials, UN involvement, mediation by neutral parties, and shifts in regional tensions. Economic sanctions developments, leadership changes, or public commitments to dialogue can rapidly shift trader sentiment. Media reports of back-channel negotiations, international pressure, or humanitarian crises may also influence odds. Traders monitor geopolitical news closely, so unexpected statements or security incidents can cause sharp price swings in either direction before the deadline.