TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 11:11 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This group forecasts the next President of Estonia. The election is scheduled for 2026, with resolution based on the individual officially sworn into office by December 31, 2026. Markets cover named candidates and an 'Other' option.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket focuses on the 'next' president, while Kalshi focuses on the 'first' president to take office, creating a difference in resolution logic.Hero tip: Consider that Kalshi markets will resolve to 'Yes' for a candidate as soon as they take office, even if others follow. Polymarket requires a candidate to be the *next* to take office. This affects trading strategy, especially if multiple candidates are viable.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves to the next individual officially sworn in as President of Estonia by December 31, 2026. Includes an 'Other' option if no one is sworn in. "To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in as President of Estonia. Any interim or caretaker President will not count toward the resolution of this market."
- Kalshi: Resolves to the first individual to formally hold the position of President of Estonia before January 1, 2027. Each candidate has a separate market. "If Ülle Madise formally holds the position of President of Estonia before Jan 1, 2027, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
Estonia is currently scheduled to indirectly elect a new president on September 2, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of President of Estonia by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in as President of Estonia. Any interim or caretaker President will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such President takes office by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Estonia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
The event resolves to Yes if any listed individual formally assumes the role of President of Estonia in a permanent, confirmed, elected, or otherwise non-temporary capacity before January 1, 2027, and is the first such person to do so after the contract's issuance. The current office holder at issuance is excluded from consideration. Temporary roles—including acting, interim, transitional, provisional, caretaker, or pro tempore capacities—do not satisfy the criteria for resolution. The determination hinges solely on the first qualified assumption of the presidency by any of the named subjects, with all candidates subject to identical payout conditions.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds, like those reflected in this market, often provide a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what people are willing to *bet* on, which can incorporate a wider range of information and strategic considerations. This can lead to prediction markets being more accurate, especially when factoring in less-publicized information or anticipating late-breaking developments. However, it’s important to remember that both polls and prediction markets have their limitations and are not foolproof predictors of the future.
Several events could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements from influential political figures, unexpected developments in candidate campaigns, and shifts in public opinion could all cause price fluctuations. Any news related to the eligibility or viability of potential candidates would also be a key driver. Furthermore, significant geopolitical events or changes within the Estonian political landscape could also influence trading activity and move the odds in this market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding how the market evolves.