TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 21, 4:35 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks which individual will become the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election. Currently, the consensus probability that Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon will be the next Premier is 100.0%. This forecast is an aggregation of data from Polymarket and Kalshi, and will resolve based on official information from the Government of Quebec. Should a formal appointment not occur by the resolution deadline, the market will resolve to “Other”. Keep an eye on the official election results following the Quebec general election, scheduled to be held no later than October 5, 2026, as this will determine the outcome.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: The resolution deadlines differ between Polymarket and Kalshi, potentially leading to different outcomes if a Premier is appointed between January 1, 2027, and June 30, 2027.Hero tip: Consider the differing resolution deadlines when trading. Kalshi markets will resolve much sooner, potentially creating discrepancies if a premier is appointed after January 1st, 2027, but before June 30th, 2027.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves to 'Other' if no Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Considers appointment up to a later date.
- Kalshi: Resolves to No if no candidate is appointed Premier before January 1, 2027. Has an earlier resolution deadline.
Polymarket
The 2026 Quebec general election is scheduled to be held no later than October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
The event determines whether any of the five listed individuals becomes Quebec's first full-powered Premier after the 2026 general election and before January 1, 2027. A qualifying Premier must assume office with the confidence of the National Assembly following government formation—either as the incoming leader after a change in administration or as the sitting Premier when results are confirmed. Caretaker or acting service before this point does not count. Resolution requires confirmation from at least one Source Agency through published articles, broadcasts, or official reports that factually verify the outcome, relying on journalistic investigation rather than speculation. If someone outside the listed candidates qualifies first, or if no Premier has been confirmed by the deadline, all markets resolve 'No'.
Frequently asked questions
Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi for the Quebec premiership market can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading limits, and fee structure, which can influence price discovery. Differences in liquidity – the volume of traders actively participating – also play a role, as smaller volumes are more susceptible to price swings. Furthermore, differing interpretations of available information or news events surrounding the potential candidates can lead to variations in how traders price the probability of each outcome in this market.
Numerous events could significantly impact this market. Major shifts in public opinion, as reflected in polling data, would likely cause price adjustments. Key policy announcements from leading candidates, significant endorsements, or unexpected scandals could also move the market. Economic indicators, such as unemployment rates or GDP growth, could influence voter sentiment and, consequently, trading activity. Furthermore, any changes in the political landscape, such as party leadership changes or the emergence of new political alliances, could alter the probabilities reflected in this market. The overall campaign performance of each candidate will also be a crucial factor.