TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Tour
All
Science and Technology
Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by...?
polymarket

Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by...?

Volume:
$63,417

September 30

 - Polymarket

September 30 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 22, 2026

Closed: Sep 22, 4:19 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

September 30

View
100%
11%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$34,172
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 4h 29m
Yes
polymarket

October 31

100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15,778
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 2d
Yes
polymarket

November 30

100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,471
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2d
Yes
polymarket

September 27

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,244
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

September 22

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,121
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

September 23

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,213
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

September 24

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$831
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

August 31

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$585
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 8

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's next GPT Luna model (5.7+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Luna" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Luna would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Luna or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Luna" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Luna, GPT-5.6 Sol, or GPT-5.6 Terra, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's next GPT Luna model (5.7+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Luna" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Luna would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Luna or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Luna" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Luna, GPT-5.6 Sol, or GPT-5.6 Terra, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current odds of various release dates for the next OpenAI GPT release. You’ll find the price history, reflecting how traders are valuing different outcomes over time, and the 24-hour volume, which currently stands at $14,948. Total volume for this market is $63,417, indicating the overall interest in predicting when OpenAI will release its next generation model. The dashboard provides a real-time view of market sentiment regarding the timing of this significant advancement in artificial intelligence.

This market resolves around Dec 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on OpenAI’s official announcement of the release date for the next GPT model (version 5.7 or higher). The announcement must be publicly available and widely reported by reputable news sources to be considered valid. The market will then settle to 100% for the outcome corresponding to the officially announced release date, and 0% for all other outcomes.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Official announcements from OpenAI regarding development progress, delays, or specific features of the next GPT model would be major catalysts. Unexpected breakthroughs in AI research, or conversely, significant technical challenges, could also shift expectations. Furthermore, major competitor announcements – for example, a groundbreaking release from Google or Anthropic – could influence the perceived timeline and capabilities of OpenAI’s next release, causing traders to adjust their positions accordingly. Any credible leaks regarding the release date could also move the market.