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Next Grok Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?
Other
polymarket
predict

Next Grok Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?

Total volume:
$73,491
Volume 24h:
$16,173
34%
Liquidity:
$166,408
10%
Open interest:
$8,229N/A

December 31, 2026

 - Predict

December 31, 2026 - Predict

71%

-12.9%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

65%70%75%80%85%

Aug 17

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Aug 24

Vol.

$1.3k

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?

70%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 71¢ buys you 141 shares | Odds: 70% Total Payout: $141 | Net Profit: $41 Multiplier: 1.41x | ROI: 41% | APY: 162% 129 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Description

This event group tracks two separate AI model release scenarios: 1) Whether SpaceXAI's next Grok model (version 4.6 or higher) will achieve specific benchmark scores (1440-1480) on the Arena.AI leaderboard by December 31, 2026, and 2) Whether OpenAI will release GPT-6 to the general public by various dates in 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Grok and GPT-6 markets use clear, consistent resolution criteria within their respective platforms, with no conflicting rules between platforms.Primary resolution logic: Arena.AI leaderboard for Grok model scores; OpenAI official announcements for GPT-6 release status

Core resolution logic:

  • Grok markets resolve based on the highest score of the first qualifying Grok model (version 4.6+) added to Arena.AI leaderboard
  • GPT-6 markets resolve when OpenAI makes GPT-6 publicly accessible (open beta or public release), not just available to private users
  • All markets have a hard deadline of December 31, 2026

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Multiple models same day: Use the highest-scoring model added on that calendar date for Grok markets
  • Leaderboard unavailability: Use first subsequent available score within 7 days, otherwise resolve No for Grok markets
  • GPT-6 naming ambiguity: Only models explicitly named GPT-6 or recognized successors to GPT-5 count (e.g., GPT-5.5 does not qualify)
Timing: Grok markets resolve at 12:00 PM ET the day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard. GPT-6 markets resolve at 11:59 PM ET on the specified deadline date.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next SpaceXAI Grok model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying SpaceXAI model must have “Grok” in its displayed model name and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, grok-4.6-high, grok-4.7-thinking, grok-5, or similar would qualify. Models whose displayed name does not include “Grok,” or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as grok-4.1-expert, grok-4.3-heavy, grok-4.5-GA will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked “AutoEval” will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the “AutoEval” label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Grok model debut market aggregates real-time data from multiple prediction platforms, showing how traders price the likelihood of a new Grok model release. It displays current probabilities, trading volume, and recent movements across venues. By consolidating these metrics into one view, the dashboard helps users monitor market sentiment and compare how different platforms evaluate this potential tech milestone.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through collective trader bets, reflecting a decentralized view of future product releases. Analyst forecasts often incorporate detailed technical roadmaps and corporate statements, which can diverge from the crowd-sourced odds. While both sources offer insight, prediction markets may react faster to breaking news or shifts in public discussion, sometimes leading to notably different probabilities than traditional expert analysis.

Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform hosts its own user base and liquidity pool, which shapes how prices form. On Polymarket, traders may weigh recent tech announcements more heavily, while Predict could reflect broader, longer-term industry expectations. Differences in available information, user demographics, and market depth all contribute to varied pricing, meaning the two venues can show distinct probabilities for the same event.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will watch for official announcements, product releases, or verified benchmarks that confirm whether the specified model criteria are met. The process relies on publicly accessible evidence, ensuring an objective determination aligned with the market’s defined conditions.

Key signals include tech announcements, developer conferences, or leaks about upcoming model capabilities. Any indication that the next iteration will or won’t meet the benchmark can shift odds rapidly. Additionally, competitor releases or regulatory updates may influence trader sentiment. Keeping an eye on both official channels and reputable tech news sources will help anticipate potential moves in this market as the Jan 1, 2027 deadline approaches.