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Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
Other
polymarket
predict

Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?

Total volume:
$50,664
Volume 24h:
$1,399
44%
Liquidity:
$83,288
7%
Open interest:
$7,207N/A

45%+

all

2 markets

Polymarket

88%

Predict

72.6%

consensus

80.3%

-0.3%

spread

72.6-88%

(15.4pp)

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

60%70%80%90%

Aug 18

Aug 19

Aug 20

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 25

Vol.

$2.8k

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?

88%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 88¢ buys you 114 shares | Odds: 88% Total Payout: $114 | Net Profit: $14 Multiplier: 1.14x | ROI: 14% | APY: 44% Low liquidity 128 days to resolution
predict

Trade on Predict

At 72.6¢ buys you 138 shares | Odds: 72% Total Payout: $138 | Net Profit: $38 Multiplier: 1.38x | ROI: 38% | APY: 147% 128 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Description

This event group tracks whether the next Google Gemini Pro model will achieve specific performance thresholds on two different evaluation benchmarks: Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) and Arena.AI Leaderboard.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket (HLE) and Predict (Arena) use the same core logic: first qualifying Pro model added to the benchmark, scored at 12:00 PM ET the next calendar day, with fallback rules for unavailable data.Primary resolution logic: Official benchmark websites (agi.safe.ai for Humanity's Last Exam, arena.ai/leaderboard/text for Arena.AI Leaderboard)

Core resolution logic:

  • Use the first qualifying Gemini Pro model added to the benchmark
  • Score is taken from the official benchmark at 12:00 PM ET on the next calendar day
  • If the benchmark is unavailable, use the first subsequent available instance within 7 days
  • If no qualifying model appears by December 31, 2026, resolve all to "No"

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Multiple models same day: Use the highest-scoring model among those added on the same calendar date
  • Model removed before deadline: Does not qualify if removed before 12:00 PM ET the next calendar day
Timing: Resolution occurs at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the model's first appearance, or by December 31, 2026, whichever comes firstOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Show more

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results. Any Gemini model labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. The percentage displayed as “HLE Accuracy” for the model in its result card on the “AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam” chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Gemini model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-2.5-pro, gemini-3-pro, or gemini-3.1-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Gemini Pro model debut market aggregates real-time odds and liquidity from multiple prediction platforms, offering a consensus view of trader expectations. It shows the current probability of different outcomes, total volume of $46,754 and 24-hour volume of $0, plus platform-specific data such as top outcomes and recent price shifts. This centralized snapshot helps users monitor sentiment and detect early signals about when Google might unveil its next advanced AI model.

On Polymarket, this market currently reflects strong confidence in a particular outcome, priced at 87.5%. Analyst forecasts often weigh technical benchmarks and release timelines, which can align or contrast with trader sentiment. Where models suggest higher performance, markets may price in greater probability, while caution from experts can temper odds.

On Polymarket and Predict, pricing can vary due to differences in user bases, liquidity depth, and market design. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, Polymarket currently favors Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? at 87.5%, while Predict leans toward Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? at 72.2%. Factors such as regional interest, trading volume disparities of 15.3 points, and distinct fee structures can all create pricing gaps that reflect localized trader sentiment rather than any discrepancy in the underlying event facts.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will reflect whether the specified criteria for the next Gemini Pro model debut are met, based on official announcements and documented evidence. Traders should watch for Google’s AI releases, technical documentation, and independent verification from trusted tech media and research institutions to anticipate the final settlement.

Key signals that could shift this market include official Google AI announcements, pre-release performance benchmarks, analyst reports on model capabilities, and competitive moves from rival firms that raise or lower expectations. Media coverage of major tech conferences, regulatory updates affecting AI deployment, and unexpected delays or accelerations in Google’s product roadmap are also likely catalysts. Any public demonstration or leak suggesting altered timing or altered performance targets may cause rapid price swings.