TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Next Claude Opus released on...?
polymarket

When will the next Claude Opus be released?

Volume:
$530,645

July 24

 - Polymarket

July 24 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 24, 2026

Closed: Jul 24, 4:10 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

July 24

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$151,040
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

July 23

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$75,048
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

No release by July 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$67,876
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$45,275
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 28

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$38,299
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 29

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$32,296
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 26

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30,912
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 25

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$29,640
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 27

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25,821
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,165
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 21

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,153
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 22

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,888
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 20

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,771
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 18

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,018
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 19

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$974
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 17

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$250
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$191
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

July 15 or prior

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 18

Intro

This market tracks whether Anthropic's next Claude Opus model will be released specifically on July 24, 2026, according to Polymarket, with the leading outcome currently at 100.0% and the alternative outcome at 0.1%. The resolution will be based on official announcements and public accessibility details from Anthropic. Watch for the July 31, 2026 deadline, which marks the end of the betting period for this market.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public. Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

The Claude Opus release date market on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and trading activity around when Anthropic will launch its next-generation Claude Opus model. The dashboard displays current market prices, historical price movements, and trading volume as participants buy and sell shares tied to different release date outcomes. This market aggregates the collective forecast of traders who believe they can predict the timing of this major AI milestone, with volume of $530,645 reflecting overall interest in the event.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst estimates because traders have direct financial incentive to forecast accurately, whereas public analyst commentary may reflect institutional positioning or marketing. In this market, odds reflect the aggregated bets of participants weighing Anthropic's development roadmap, competitive pressures, and historical release patterns. Comparing these odds to published analyst timelines or tech industry forecasts reveals whether the market is pricing in faster or slower deployment than expert consensus suggests.

On Polymarket, traders set prices through an automated market maker that converts buy and sell orders into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome—representing a specific release date window—trades as a separate contract, and the price of each reflects what traders collectively believe is the likelihood of that outcome occurring. As new information emerges or sentiment shifts, prices adjust dynamically, allowing participants to enter or exit positions throughout the trading period.

This market resolves around Jul 31, 2026, at which point the outcome is determined by verifying whether Claude Opus has been released and on what date. Resolution hinges on credible public confirmation from Anthropic or major news sources documenting the official launch. Once the event is confirmed, the corresponding outcome contract is marked correct, and traders holding winning shares receive their payout based on the final odds.

Key catalysts include Anthropic announcements about product timelines, competitive releases from OpenAI or other AI labs, regulatory developments affecting model deployment, and any public statements from company leadership about development progress. Technical breakthroughs or setbacks in large language model research could also shift expectations. Media coverage of AI capabilities, funding rounds, or hiring patterns may signal acceleration or delays, prompting traders to reprrice their positions as new information becomes available.