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Next Claude Opus released by...?
polymarket
predict

Next Claude Opus released by...?

Jul 28, 2026, 6:34 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$120,817
Volume 24h:
$5,394
33%
Liquidity:
$154,115
22%
Open interest:
$10,747N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026?

96%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 96.8¢ buys you 103 shares | Odds: 96% Total Payout: $103 | Net Profit: $3 Multiplier: 1.03x | ROI: 3% | APY: 10% 129 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
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Description

This event group tracks two distinct future events related to Anthropic: the release timeline for the next Claude Opus model and the timeline for Anthropic's initial public offering (IPO). The first set of markets focuses on whether Anthropic will release a publicly accessible Claude Opus model by specific dates in 2026. The second set focuses on whether Anthropic will conduct an IPO and list its shares on a public exchange by specific dates in 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both the Anthropic IPO and Claude Opus release markets share consistent resolution criteria across Polymarket and Predict, focusing on official announcements and public accessibility as the primary resolution sources.Primary resolution logic: Official Anthropic announcements, SEC filings, and exchange listings; credible reporting may be used for verification

Core resolution logic:

  • Anthropic IPO markets resolve Yes only if shares are listed and trading by the specified deadline; acquisition by a public company results in an immediate No
  • Claude Opus release markets resolve Yes only if a model explicitly named Opus is made publicly accessible (open beta or rolling waitlist) by the deadline, with official announcement
  • Closed beta, private access, or models under different names (e.g., Sonnet, Haiku) do not qualify for Opus release markets

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Acquisition Before IPO Deadline: If Anthropic is acquired by a public company before the deadline, the IPO market resolves as No immediately
  • Opus Model in Closed Beta: A Claude Opus model in closed beta or private access, even if announced, does not qualify; public accessibility is required
  • Labeling Error: If a model is mislabeled as Opus on the website but not actually accessible to the public, the market resolves as No
Timing: Resolution occurs when the specified deadline passes, based on the most recent official information available at that timeOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Claude Opus release market aggregates data from multiple venues, showing real-time odds and volume across platforms. It visualizes how traders on different prediction markets price the likelihood of the next Claude Opus model release. You can see total volume of $111,819 and 24-hour volume of $6,607, plus cross-platform consensus and any notable divergences. This unified view helps you gauge market sentiment and spot trends as the event approaches.

On Polymarket, this market currently reflects a strong probability of an early release, while analyst forecasts vary widely depending on their access to insider information and interpretations of development timelines. Prediction market odds often react faster to new signals — such as executive statements or engineering leaks — than traditional analyst reports, which may take longer to update. The gap between Polymarket's pricing and analyst consensus can highlight where crowd intuition diverges from institutional expectations.

Differences in user bases, liquidity, and market design can cause Polymarket and Predict to price this market differently. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, Polymarket might attract more tech-focused traders who interpret technical blogs, while Predict could have a broader audience weighing general business signals. These distinct participant pools often lead to varied probability assessments, reflected in a spread of 6.3 between the platforms.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the release is verifiable from credible public reporting. The key trigger will be an official announcement or widely reported deployment confirming the timing. Until then, traders will adjust positions based on any news that clarifies the schedule, with the final settlement reflecting whether the conditions are met by the deadline.

Key signals include official announcements from the company, major software developer conferences, or leaks from trusted sources within the ecosystem. Any indication of delays, accelerated timelines, or competing product releases could shift probabilities. Additionally, broader market trends — such as investor sentiment or regulatory developments — may influence trader confidence and move this market as resolution approaches.