TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Tour
All
Science and Technology
New MAI model released by...?
polymarket

New MAI model released by...?

Volume:
$549,001

April 30

 - Polymarket

April 30 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved May 5, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

April 30

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$547,486
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

June 30

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,516
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases any new MAI model that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A “new MAI model” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family, including new base models or successors within that family. Any releases of task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar variants will count for this market. Products labeled as outside of the MAI family will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (microsoft.ai), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.