TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.8b

24H VOL:

$153,964,051

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,815,744,871

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,809,858,743

498,684

Markets across

37,244

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,831

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Netflix (NFLX) Q3 operating margin?
polymarket

Netflix (NFLX) Q3 operating margin?

Volume:
$30,985

34% to 36%

 - Polymarket

34% to 36% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 6:03 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

34% to 36%

View
100%
70%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,670
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

32% to 34%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,139
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<30%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,056
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30% to 32%

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,613
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

36%+

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,507
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to Netflix's operating margin for the upcoming third fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Netflix's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to Netflix's operating margin for the upcoming third fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Netflix's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market participants are expressing their views on Netflix’s Q3 operating margin. These forecasts are formed through actual money at risk, which differs from traditional analyst polls that rely on stated opinions. While analyst expectations often center around a specific range, this market allows traders to bet on a wider spectrum of potential outcomes, reflecting a more nuanced view of the possibilities. It will be interesting to see how the collective wisdom of the crowd compares to the consensus estimates from financial analysts as the earnings release approaches.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders can buy and sell shares representing different operating margin outcomes. The price of each share reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe a specific margin is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding shares will climb. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds continuously adapt to new information and changing sentiment regarding Netflix’s financial performance.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official Netflix Q3 operating margin is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the operating margin figure reported in Netflix’s official Q3 earnings release, as publicly available through their investor relations website and financial news outlets. Traders will then be able to see which outcome aligned with the reported data, and payouts will be distributed accordingly based on the final result.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Any news regarding Netflix’s subscriber growth, content releases, or competitive landscape could shift trader sentiment. Macroeconomic factors, such as broader market trends or changes in interest rates, might also play a role. Furthermore, any revisions to analyst estimates or unexpected announcements from Netflix management could cause substantial price movements in this market. Keep an eye on these signals as they emerge, as they are likely to impact the perceived probability of different operating margin outcomes.